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UFC NOCHE LOPES VS SILVA
September 10, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva Sat, Sep 13
- 747th UFC Event
- 117th UFC on ESPN+ Main Card
- 31st UFC Event this year
- 26th UFC event from Texas
- 4th UFC event from San Antonio
- 3rd Noche UFC event
- 2nd UFC Main Event for Diego Lopes
- 1st UFC Main Event for Jean Silva
RODRIGO SEZINANDO VS DANIIL DONCHENKO
| Fighter | Rodrigo Sezinando | Daniil Donchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Born | ~1998 (age 27, UOL) | August 4, 2001 (age 24, Tapology) |
| Division | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Height | Not listed (5’11” inferred) | Not listed (6’0” inferred) |
| Reach | Not listed (72” inferred) | Not listed (73” inferred) |
| Record | 8-1-0 (4 KOs/TKOs, 2 subs, 2 decisions) | 11-2-0 (7 KOs/TKOs, 2 subs, 2 decisions) |
| Association | Vancouver, Canada (unaffiliated; ex-Nova União) | Ukraine (unaffiliated) |
| Stage of Career | Rising prospect; TUF 33 finalist after defeating Bianchini (decision), Creighton (KO, 2025); UFC debut vs. Donchenko at UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva, Sep 13, 2025; 2x BFL Super Lightweight Champion, Samourai Super Welterweight Champion, BJJ black belt. | Rising finisher; TUF 33 finalist after defeating Martins (decision), Dixon (KO, 2025); UFC debut vs. Sezinando at UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva, Sep 13, 2025; Former NAIZA Lightweight Champion. |
| Summary | Well-rounded with 50% KO rate, 25% sub rate; blends striking/BJJ. Durable in TUF; excels in ground transitions, risks stand-up vs. Donchenko’s power. | Power striker with 64% KO rate; high volume, subbed twice. TUF KO flair, fades in long fights; excels in striking, vulnerable to Sezinando’s BJJ. |
STRIKING
| Attribute | Rodrigo Sezinando | Daniil Donchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hand Speed | Above average; quick combos | Above average; quick volume |
| Jab | Sharp; sets kicks/TDs | Lead; sets power shots |
| Cross | Straight right; KO power | Straight right; KO tool |
| Right Hook | Frequent; close-range | Frequent; close-range |
| Overhand Left | Occasional counter | Signature; finishes |
| Uppercuts | Clinch; dirty boxing | Pocket; accumulation |
| Solitary Striker or Volume Puncher | Solitary striker; quality over volume | Volume puncher; high output |
| Favorite Combinations | 1-2-body kick; jab-hook-TD | 1-2-hook; jab-cross-body kick |
| Leg Kicks | Moderate; disrupts | Strong; disrupts |
| Body Kicks | Frequent; midsection | Frequent; midsection |
| Head Kicks | Rare; selective | Occasional |
| Chains Kicks to Punches | Effective; flows to grappling | Effective; maintains pressure |
CLINCH
| Attribute | Rodrigo Sezinando | Daniil Donchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Physical Strength | Solid; controls similar sizes | Good; controls but tires |
| Technique | Proficient; knees/trips | Functional; knees |
| Knees | Sharp to body; sets TDs | Sharp to body |
| Elbows | Slicing; offensive | Slicing; offensive |
| Defense Against Knees/Elbows | Solid; durable | Average; vulnerable |
GRAPPLING
| Attribute | Rodrigo Sezinando | Daniil Donchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Wrestling from a Shot | Average; reactive | Below average; minimal |
| Wrestling in the Clinch | Strong; trips/sweeps | Functional; limited |
| Takedown Defense | Functional; sprawls well | Below average; subbed twice |
| Ability to Return to Feet | Good; scrambles | Average; controlled |
| Submissions | Elite; 2 subs (RNC, armbar) | Limited; 2 subs (chokes) |
| Defense/BJJ from Bottom | Strong; sweeps/reversals | Weak; subbed twice |
| Top Control | Solid; subs/GnP | Minimal; stand-up focus |
| Ground-and-Pound | Moderate; sets subs | Moderate; 2 TKOs |
INTANGIBLES
| Attribute | Rodrigo Sezinando | Daniil Donchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Athleticism/General Physical Strength | High; durable BJJ base at 27 | High; explosive striker at 24 |
| Cardio | Average; short TUF fights | Average; fades in long fights |
| Chin | Durable; minimal damage | Durable; no KO losses |
| Recuperative Powers | Resilient; 8-1 post-loss | Strong; 11-2 with TUF streak |
| Intelligence | High; tactical BJJ | High; aggressive but tactical |
Official Pick: Rodrigo Sezinando via submission in Round 2
Reasoning: Sezinando’s BJJ black belt and ground dominance exploit Donchenko’s two submission losses and poor takedown defense, securing a choke (likely RNC or armbar) in ground exchanges after surviving early striking. Donchenko’s 64% KO rate and youth (24) threaten in stand-up with high-volume punches and kicks, but Sezinando’s clinch control and grappling (27, experienced) neutralize it.
ALICE PEREIRA VS MONTSERRAT RENDON
| Fighter | Montserrat Rendon (“Monster”) | Alice Pereira (“Golden Girl”) |
|---|---|---|
| Born | Mar 16, 1989 (age 36, [Web ID: 22, 24]) | Dec 20, 2005 (age 19, Tapology) |
| Division | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Height | 5’8” (1.72 m, [Web ID: 22]) | Not listed (5’6” inferred) |
| Reach | 68” (173 cm, [Web ID: 22]) | Not listed (67” inferred) |
| Record | 6-1-0 (0 KOs, 0 subs, 6 decisions) | 6-0-0 (4 KOs, 1 sub, 1 decision) |
| Association | Mexico (ECR Fight Center) | Brazil (unaffiliated) |
| Stage of Career | Veteran; #24 women’s bantamweight; 1-1 UFC after win vs. Vidal (split decision, Sep 2023), loss vs. Zheleznyakova (unanimous decision, Mar 2024); Faces Pereira after 18-month layoff. | Undefeated prospect; youngest female UFC fighter at debut; Cage Masters FC bantamweight champion (Dec 2024); faces Rendon in UFC debut, Sep 13, 2025. |
| Summary | Grinding decision fighter (100% decision rate); strong wrestling (3/6 TDs vs. Vidal) but struggles vs. strikers. Must control Pereira to win. | Explosive finisher (83% finish rate); aggressive striker, untested grappling. Must avoid Rendon’s wrestling to land KO. |
STRIKING
| Attribute | Montserrat Rendon | Alice Pereira |
|---|---|---|
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hand Speed | Average; methodical | Above average; quick, precise |
| Jab | Basic; closes distance | Sharp; sets power shots |
| Cross | Straight right; limited power | Straight right; KO tool |
| Right Hook | Occasional; close-range | Frequent; close-range |
| Overhand Right | Rare; low power | Heavy; finishes |
| Uppercuts | Minimal; clinch-based | Occasional; pocket |
| Solitary Striker or Volume Puncher | Solitary striker; low output | Volume puncher; high output |
| Favorite Combinations | Jab-cross to clinch | 1-2-hook; jab-cross-body kick |
| Leg Kicks | Rare; minimal | Moderate; disrupts |
| Body Kicks | Occasional; low volume | Frequent; midsection |
| Head Kicks | None observed | Occasional |
| Chains Kicks to Punches | Limited; sets TDs | Effective; maintains pressure |
CLINCH
| Attribute | Montserrat Rendon | Alice Pereira |
|---|---|---|
| Physical Strength | Solid; controls foes | Unconfirmed; limited exposure |
| Technique | Proficient; trips/body locks | Functional; knees to break |
| Knees | Moderate to body; control | Sharp to body; offensive |
| Elbows | Rare; defensive | Slicing; close-range |
| Defense Against Knees/Elbows | Average; absorbs strikes | Unconfirmed |
GRAPPLING
| Attribute | Montserrat Rendon | Alice Pereira |
|---|---|---|
| Wrestling from a Shot | Above average; 3/6 TDs | Unconfirmed; no TDs |
| Wrestling in the Clinch | Strong; secures TDs | Unconfirmed; limited |
| Takedown Defense | Functional; untested | Unconfirmed; untested |
| Ability to Return to Feet | Average; limited bottom time | Unconfirmed; no bottom time |
| Submissions | None; 0 subs | Moderate; 1 sub (choke) |
| Defense/BJJ from Bottom | Unconfirmed; no bottom time | Unconfirmed; no bottom time |
| Top Control | Solid; 5:24 vs. Zheleznyakova | Unconfirmed; no top time |
| Ground-and-Pound | Minimal; control-focused | Moderate; some KOs via GnP |
INTANGIBLES
| Attribute | Montserrat Rendon | Alice Pereira |
|---|---|---|
| Athleticism/Physical Strength | Moderate; durable at 36 | High; explosive at 19 |
| Cardio | Average; decision pace | Average; untested in three-rounders |
| Chin | Durable; no KO losses | Unconfirmed; minimal damage |
| Recuperative Powers | Resilient; 6-1 post-losses | Strong; 6-0, rapid rise |
| Intelligence | High; sticks to wrestling | High; technical for experience |
Official Pick: Alice Pereira via KO in Round 1
Reasoning: Pereira’s youth (19), speed, and 83% finish rate (4 KOs, 1 sub) overwhelm Rendon’s wrestling-based approach. Rendon’s 18-month layoff and age (36) limit her against Pereira’s aggressive striking (4/6 KOs), likely landing a heavy cross or overhand early. Rendon’s wrestling (3/6 TDs vs. Vidal) may briefly stall Pereira, but her lack of finishing power (0 KOs/subs) and weakness against strikers (outstruck by Zheleznyakova) favor Pereira’s KO potential. Pereira wins her historic UFC debut.
ALESSANDRO COSTA VS ALDEN CORIA
| Fighter | Alessandro Costa (“Nono”) | Alden Coria (“Cobra”) |
|---|---|---|
| Born | Apr 2, 1996 (age 29) | Oct 7, 1994 (age 30) |
| Division | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Height | 5’4” | 5’6” |
| Reach | 67” | Not listed (68” inferred) |
| Record | 14-4-0 (6 KOs, 4 subs, 4 decisions) | 10-3-0, 1 NC (4 KOs, 2 subs, 4 decisions) |
| Association | Mexico (Extreme Kickboxing) | Texas (4oz. Fight Club) |
| Stage of Career | Veteran; #31 flyweight; 2-2 UFC, wins over Flick (KO), Borjas (TKO); Faces Coria post-layoff. | Regional veteran; #6 Texas flyweight; 5-1 in last 6, faces Costa in UFC debut. |
| Summary | Versatile finisher (43% KO, 29% sub); crisp striking, BJJ. Excels early, fades late. | Balanced; 40% KO, 20% sub. Durable but untested at UFC level. |
STRIKING
| Attribute | Alessandro Costa | Alden Coria |
|---|---|---|
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hand Speed | Above average; sharp | Average; steady |
| Jab | Crisp; sets power | Functional; sets combos |
| Cross | Straight right; KO power | Straight right; moderate power |
| Right Hook | Frequent; close-range | Frequent; pocket |
| Overhand Right | Heavy; finishes | Occasional; power shot |
| Uppercuts | Pocket; accumulation | Rare; close-range |
| Solitary/Volume | Volume puncher | Solitary striker |
| Favorite Combos | 1-2-hook; jab-cross-low kick | Jab-cross-hook; cross-low kick |
| Leg Kicks | Frequent; disrupts | Moderate; calves |
| Body Kicks | Moderate; midsection | Occasional; accumulation |
| Head Kicks | Occasional | Rare |
| Chains Kicks to Punches | Effective; fluid | Functional; less fluid |
CLINCH
| Attribute | Alessandro Costa | Alden Coria |
|---|---|---|
| Physical Strength | Solid; controls foes | Solid; holds own |
| Technique | Proficient; knees/trips | Average; basic |
| Knees | Sharp to body; sets TDs | Moderate; defensive |
| Elbows | Slicing; offensive | Occasional; short-range |
| Defense vs. Knees/Elbows | Average; absorbs shots | Average; takes shots |
GRAPPLING
| Attribute | Alessandro Costa | Alden Coria |
|---|---|---|
| Wrestling from Shot | Above average; 2/4 TDs | Average; 1/3 TDs |
| Wrestling in Clinch | Strong; body lock TDs | Functional; limited |
| Takedown Defense | Functional; 60% | Solid; 70% |
| Return to Feet | Good; scrambles | Good; scrambles |
| Submissions | Strong; 4 subs (RNC, armbar) | Moderate; 2 subs (choke, armbar) |
| Defense/BJJ from Bottom | Solid; sweeps/escapes | Average; escapes |
| Top Control | Strong; 3:15 vs. Borjas | Functional; 2:10 vs. Martinelli |
| Ground-and-Pound | Heavy; 2 TKO wins | Moderate; 2 TKO wins |
INTANGIBLES
| Attribute | Alessandro Costa | Alden Coria |
|---|---|---|
| Athleticism/Strength | High; explosive at 29 | Moderate; durable at 30 |
| Cardio | Average; fades late | Strong; maintains pace |
| Chin | Durable; 1 KO loss | Durable; no KO losses |
| Recuperative Powers | Resilient; 2-1 post-losses | Resilient; 10-3 with NC |
| Intelligence | High; adapts mid-fight | High; tactical |
Official Pick: Alessandro Costa via TKO in Round 2
Reasoning: Costa’s finishing ability (43% KO, 29% sub) and UFC experience (2-2) overpower Coria’s regional-level durability. Costa’s crisp striking (TKO vs. Borjas) and grappling (2/4 TDs vs. Flick) exploit Coria’s average defense, landing a heavy overhand or GnP finish. Coria’s cardio and scrambling keep him competitive early, but his untested UFC-level skills (0-0) falter against Costa’s pace.
ZACHARY REESE VS SEDRIQUES DUMAS
| Fighter | Zachary Reese (“Savage”) | Sedriques Dumas (“The Reaper”) |
|---|---|---|
| Born | Mar 24, 1994 (age 31) | Feb 27, 1995 (age 30) |
| Division | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Height | 6’4” | 6’2” |
| Reach | 77” | 79” |
| Record | 9-2-0 (5 KOs, 2 subs, 2 decisions) | 10-3-0 (5 KOs, 2 subs, 3 decisions) |
| Association | Texas (Hayabusa Fight and Fitness) | Florida (American Top Team) |
| Stage of Career | Prospect; #168 middleweight; 2-1 UFC, wins over Marquez (TKO), Medina (decision). | Struggling veteran; #47 middleweight; 3-3 UFC, wins over Brundage, Azaitar, Fremd. |
| Summary | High-finishing (78% finish rate); long reach, KO power. Strong early, weak vs. wrestling. | Versatile but inconsistent (50% UFC win rate); aggressive striker, vulnerable to KOs. |
STRIKING
| Attribute | Zachary Reese | Sedriques Dumas |
|---|---|---|
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hand Speed | Above average; quick for size | Above average; quick combos |
| Jab | Long; controls range | Long; sets pace |
| Cross | Straight right; KO threat | Straight right; KO power |
| Right Hook | Frequent; close-range | Frequent; pocket |
| Overhand Right | Heavy; finishes | Heavy; finishes |
| Uppercuts | Pocket; accumulation | Occasional; close-range |
| Solitary/Volume | Solitary striker; power | Volume puncher; high output |
| Favorite Combos | Jab-cross-hook; cross-low kick | 1-2-hook; jab-cross-body kick |
| Leg Kicks | Moderate; calves | Frequent; disrupts |
| Body Kicks | Occasional; midsection | Moderate; midsection |
| Head Kicks | Rare; power shots | Occasional; power shots |
| Chains Kicks to Punches | Effective; sets power | Effective; maintains pressure |
CLINCH
| Attribute | Zachary Reese | Sedriques Dumas |
|---|---|---|
| Physical Strength | Solid; leverages height | Solid; controls foes |
| Technique | Functional; knees/elbows | Proficient; knees/trips |
| Knees | Sharp to body; offensive | Sharp to body; offensive |
| Elbows | Slicing; close-range | Slicing; close-range |
| Defense vs. Knees/Elbows | Average; absorbs shots | Average; takes shots |
GRAPPLING
| Attribute | Zachary Reese | Sedriques Dumas |
|---|---|---|
| Wrestling from Shot | Average; 1/3 TDs | Average; 2/5 TDs |
| Wrestling in Clinch | Functional; limited | Strong; body lock TDs |
| Takedown Defense | Below average; 3/5 TDs allowed | Average; 50% defense |
| Return to Feet | Average; struggles under control | Good; scrambles |
| Submissions | Strong; 2 subs (armbar, guillotine) | Moderate; 2 subs (guillotine, choke) |
| Defense/BJJ from Bottom | Weak; KO’d from bottom | Average; submitted once |
| Top Control | Functional; 1:40 vs. Medina | Solid; 2:30 vs. Brundage |
| Ground-and-Pound | Heavy; 3 TKO wins | Moderate; 2 TKO wins |
INTANGIBLES
| Attribute | Zachary Reese | Sedriques Dumas |
|---|---|---|
| Athleticism/Strength | High; explosive at 31 | High; athletic at 30 |
| Cardio | Average; fades late | Average; fades late |
| Chin | Average; 1 KO loss | Weak; 2 KO losses |
| Recuperative Powers | Strong; 2-0 post-loss | Resilient; 3-2 post-losses |
| Intelligence | High; tactical striker | Moderate; aggressive, reckless |
Official Pick: Zachary Reese via TKO in Round 1
Reasoning: Reese’s 78% finish rate and 6’4” frame with 77” reach exploit Dumas’ weak chin (2 KO losses). Reese’s power (TKO vs. Marquez) lands early, likely via overhand or uppercut, overwhelming Dumas’ aggressive striking. Dumas’ 50% UFC win rate and recent KO loss (vs. Oleksiejczuk) show vulnerability, despite his reach (79”) and clinch work. Reese’s home crowd (San Antonio) boosts momentum.
JESUS AGUILAR VS LUIS GURULE
| Fighter | Jesus Aguilar | Luis Gurule (“Grim”) |
|---|---|---|
| Born | Apr 24, 1996 (age 29) | May 15, 1994 (age 31) |
| Division | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Height | 5’4” | 5’5” |
| Reach | 66” | Not listed (65” inferred) |
| Record | 11-3-0 (4 KOs, 4 subs, 3 decisions) | 10-1-0 (3 KOs, 2 subs, 5 decisions) |
| Association | Mexico (Entram Gym) | Colorado, USA (Factory X) |
| Stage of Career | Veteran; #39 flyweight; 3-2 UFC, wins over Ferreira, Mendonca, Nicoll; post-loss to Estevam. | Prospect; #54 flyweight; 0-1 UFC, loss to Osbourne; Contender Series win. |
| Summary | Versatile finisher (36% KO, 36% sub); crisp boxing, BJJ. Weak TD defense. | Aggressive striker (30% KO, 20% sub); durable, strong cardio. Untested at elite level. |
STRIKING
| Attribute | Jesus Aguilar | Luis Gurule |
|---|---|---|
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hand Speed | Above average; sharp | Average; steady |
| Jab | Quick; sets power | Functional; sets power |
| Cross | Straight right; KO threat | Straight right; moderate power |
| Right Hook | Frequent; close-range | Frequent; pocket |
| Overhand Right | Heavy; finishes | Occasional; power shot |
| Uppercuts | Pocket; accumulation | Rare; close-range |
| Solitary/Volume | Volume puncher | Volume puncher |
| Favorite Combos | 1-2-hook; jab-cross-low kick | Jab-cross-hook; cross-low kick |
| Leg Kicks | Moderate; disrupts | Frequent; calves |
| Body Kicks | Occasional; midsection | Moderate; accumulation |
| Head Kicks | Rare; selective | Rare; selective |
| Chains Kicks to Punches | Effective; fluid | Functional; pressure |
CLINCH
| Attribute | Jesus Aguilar | Luis Gurule |
|---|---|---|
| Physical Strength | Solid; controls foes | Solid; holds own |
| Technique | Proficient; knees/elbows | Average; basic |
| Knees | Sharp to body; offensive | Moderate; defensive |
| Elbows | Slicing; close-range | Occasional; short-range |
| Defense vs. Knees/Elbows | Average; absorbs shots | Average; takes shots |
GRAPPLING
| Attribute | Jesus Aguilar | Luis Gurule |
|---|---|---|
| Wrestling from Shot | Average; 1/4 TDs | Average; 1/3 TDs |
| Wrestling in Clinch | Functional; limited | Functional; limited |
| Takedown Defense | Weak; 42% defense | Average; 60% defense |
| Return to Feet | Good; scrambles | Good; scrambles |
| Submissions | Strong; 4 subs (guillotine, armbar) | Moderate; 2 subs (arm triangle, choke) |
| Defense/BJJ from Bottom | Average; submitted once | Average; TKO’d from bottom |
| Top Control | Solid; 2:10 vs. Nicoll | Functional; 1:50 vs. Silva |
| Ground-and-Pound | Moderate; 2 TKO wins | Moderate; 1 TKO win |
INTANGIBLES
| Attribute | Jesus Aguilar | Luis Gurule |
|---|---|---|
| Athleticism/Strength | High; explosive at 29 | Moderate; durable at 31 |
| Cardio | Average; fades in decisions | Strong; maintains pace |
| Chin | Durable; no KO losses | Average; 1 TKO loss |
| Recuperative Powers | Resilient; 3-1 post-losses | Strong; 2-0 post-regional losses |
| Intelligence | High; adapts mid-fight | High; tactical in regionals |
Official Pick: Jesus Aguilar via submission in Round 2
Reasoning: Aguilar’s finishing ability (36% KO, 36% sub) and UFC experience (3-2) outmatch Gurule’s aggressive but untested style (0-1 UFC). Aguilar’s guillotine threat (3/4 subs) exploits Gurule’s average grappling, especially after Gurule’s TKO loss from bottom (vs. Osbourne). Gurule’s cardio and volume striking keep him competitive early, but Aguilar’s sharper boxing and BJJ secure a submission, likely guillotine.
TATIANA SUAREZ VS AMANDA LEMOS
| Fighter | Tatiana Suarez (“The Barbarian”) | Amanda Lemos (“Amandinha”) |
|---|---|---|
| Born | December 19, 1990 | May 16, 1988 |
| Division | Women’s Strawweight | Women’s Strawweight |
| Height | 5’6” | 5’3” |
| Reach | 66” | 62” |
| Record | 10-1-0 | 15-4-1 |
| Association | Rancho Cucamonga, CA / Millennia MMA | Brazil / Cerrado MMA |
| Stage of Career | Prime contender; 34 years old with 9 years pro experience, #2 ranked women’s strawweight; Former TUF 23 winner and undefeated (10-0) until unanimous decision loss to champion Zhang Weili at UFC 312 (Feb 2025); 7-1 UFC record with wins over Jéssica Andrade (sub, Aug 2023), Montana De La Rosa (sub, Feb 2023), Carla Esparza (TKO, Sep 2018), Alexa Grasso (sub, May 2018); Facing Amanda Lemos at UFC Fight Night 259 (Noche UFC) on Sep 13, 2025, in San Antonio, TX, as a potential No. 1 contender bout after injury-plagued career. | Veteran contender; 37 years old with 11 years pro experience, #6 ranked women’s strawweight; 9-4-1 UFC record with recent unanimous decision win over Iasmin Lucindo (Mar 2025), unanimous decision loss to champion Zhang Weili (Aug 2023); wins over Mackenzie Dern (decision, Jul 2024), Virna Jandiroba (sub, Jul 2024), Marina Rodriguez (KO, Feb 2023); facing Tatiana Suarez at UFC Fight Night 259 (Noche UFC) on Sep 13, 2025, in San Antonio, TX, as a potential No. 1 contender bout. |
| Summary | Elite wrestler with suffocating grappling (3.5 TD avg, 60% accuracy) and submission threat (5 subs, 50% finish rate), Suarez dominates with chain wrestling and top control but has striking limitations (3.2 SLpM, 48% accuracy) and injury history limiting activity (only 2 fights since 2019). Her TUF pedigree and wins over champions highlight potential, but recent title loss exposed cardio and striking defense (absorbs 2.8 per min, 52% defense) against volume strikers like Lemos; excels in prolonged ground games but must avoid stand-up wars; rebound win could position her for rematch. | Explosive striker with knockout power (53% KO rate, 8 KOs) and submission threat (20% sub rate), Lemos excels in aggressive volume (4.5 SLpM, 50% accuracy) and clinch knees but has vulnerabilities in grappling (50% TD def) and cardio against elite wrestlers (controlled by Zhang). Her recent wins show resilience post-title loss, but losses to Zhang and Jandiroba highlight ground weaknesses (absorbs 3.5 per min, 48% defense); thrives in stand-up exchanges but must avoid Suarez’s wrestling; win could earn title rematch. |
STRIKING
| Attribute | Tatiana Suarez | Amanda Lemos |
|---|---|---|
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hand Speed | Average; quick setups for entries, 48% accuracy. | Above average; quick bursts for power, 50% accuracy. |
| Jab | Functional; paws to close distance, sets up takedowns. | Effective lead; gauges distance, sets up hooks. |
| Cross | Straight right in 1-2s; basic power, no KOs. | Straight right; solid power, 2 KOs. |
| Right Hook | Occasional; close-range body work. | Frequent; close-range banger. |
| Overhand Left | Rare; prefers level changes. | Signature looping; KO weapon (vs. Rodriguez). |
| Uppercuts | Minimal; clinch-focused. | Occasional; pocket striking. |
| Solitary Striker or Volume Puncher | Solitary striker; low-output (3.2 SLpM), setups for grappling (absorbs 2.8 per min, 52% defense). | Volume puncher; high-output (4.5 SLpM), mixes levels (absorbs 3.5 per min, 48% defense). |
| Favorite Combinations | 1-2 into double-leg; jab-hook-body kick. | 1-2-hook into knees; jab-uppercut-leg kick. |
| Leg Kicks | Moderate, 20% to legs, disrupts stance. | Vicious lows; 25% to legs, disrupts mobility. |
| Body Kicks | Frequent roundhouses, 25% output, targets midsection. | Frequent roundhouses; targets midsection (20% output). |
| Head Kicks | Rare, 50% head strikes, accumulation-focused. | Rare; head strikes 55%, power-focused. |
| Chains Kicks to Punches | Fluid; uses kicks to bait takedowns. | Effective; flows seamlessly. |
CLINCH
| Attribute | Tatiana Suarez | Amanda Lemos |
|---|---|---|
| Physical Strength | Elite; compact frame overpowers with wrestling grip. | Good; holds position with grip. |
| Technique | Proficient; knees/trips dominate wall work. | Proficient; knees/elbow slices control wall. |
| Knees | Sharp to body/thigh; wears down opponents. | Sharp to body/thigh; fight-enders (vs. Dern). |
| Elbows | Occasional slices; defensive in close. | Cutting; defensive/offensive in close. |
| Defense Against Knees/Elbows | Strong; 70% clinch defense, good framing. | Average; slips 55% incoming, vulnerable to prolonged pressure. |
GRAPPLING
| Attribute | Tatiana Suarez | Amanda Lemos |
|---|---|---|
| Wrestling from a Shot | Elite; chain doubles (3.5 TD avg, 60% accuracy). | Average; 1.2 TD avg, 35% accuracy; reactive. |
| Wrestling in the Clinch | Dominant; trips/dumps from fence. | Functional; trips from wall. |
| Takedown Defense | High, 75% UFC, explosive sprawls. | Below average (50% UFC); exposed to chains (controlled by Zhang). |
| Ability to Return to Feet | Outstanding; quick wall-walks/scrambles. | Good; scrambles from guard. |
| Submissions | Elite; 5 career subs (guillotine, RNC, D’Arce), 0.5 sub avg. | Opportunistic; 3 career subs (armbar, triangle), 0.4 sub avg. |
| Defense/BJJ from Bottom | Solid; blue belt retention, never submitted in UFC. | Functional; survives but no elite sweeps (submitted by Jandiroba). |
| Top Control | Elite; heavy pressure for decisions/subs. | Solid; maintains for GnP/decisions. |
| Ground-and-Pound | Moderate; short strikes accumulate, 2 TKO wins. | Moderate; short strikes, 2 TKO wins. |
INTANGIBLES
| Attribute | Tatiana Suarez | Amanda Lemos |
|---|---|---|
| Athleticism/General Physical Strength | Elite; durable wrestler at 34. | High; explosive at 37. |
| Cardio | Strong; 5-round capable, no fades. | Average; strong early, fades in 5-rounders (vs. Zhang). |
| Chin | Durable; absorbs minimally, 1 decision loss. | Durable; never KO’d, absorbs well. |
| Recuperative Powers | Resilient; rebounded from injuries with 7 UFC wins. | Resilient; 9-2 post-title loss. |
| Intelligence | High; tactical wrestling IQ, adapts to pressure. | High; tactical pressure, adapts mid-fight. |
Official Pick: Tatiana Suarez via decision
Reasoning: Suarez’s elite wrestling (3.5 TD avg, 60% accuracy) and grappling dominance (5 subs) exploit Lemos’ 50% takedown defense, leading to control time and outpointing her over three rounds. Lemos’ knockout power (53% KO rate, 4.5 SLpM) threatens early in stand-up, but Suarez’s 75% TD defense and top control neutralize it, as seen against Andrade. Suarez’s durability (52% striking defense) holds up against Lemos’ volume.
CLAUDIO PUELLES VS JOAQUIM SILVA
| Fighter | Claudio Puelles (“Prince of Peru”) | Joaquim Silva (“Netto BJJ”) |
|---|---|---|
| Born | Apr 21, 1996 (age 29) | Feb 5, 1989 (age 36) |
| Division | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Height | 5’11” | 5’8” |
| Reach | 72” | 69” |
| Record | 12-4-0 (0 KOs, 5 subs, 7 decisions) | 13-5-0 (8 KOs, 2 subs, 3 decisions) |
| Association | Peru (Sanford MMA) | Brazil (Evolucao Thai) |
| Stage of Career | Veteran; #50 lightweight; 5-3 UFC, wins over Guida, Gruetzemacher; 2-fight skid. | Veteran; #70 lightweight; 6-5 UFC, wins over Gordon, Ronson; post-17-month layoff. |
| Summary | Elite grappler (5 subs, 3 kneebars); chain wrestling but weak striking. Must ground Silva. | Power striker (62% KO rate); aggressive but weak grappling. Must stay standing. |
STRIKING
| Attribute | Claudio Puelles | Joaquim Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hand Speed | Below average; setups for entries | Above average; quick combos |
| Jab | Functional; for TDs | Sharp; sets power |
| Cross | Straight right; minimal power | Straight right; KO threat |
| Right Hook | Rare; close-range | Frequent; banger |
| Overhand Right | None; not power striker | Heavy; finishes |
| Uppercuts | Minimal; clinch-based | Pocket; accumulation |
| Solitary/Volume | Solitary striker; low output | Volume puncher; high output |
| Favorite Combos | Jab to level change; hook-body kick | 1-2-hook; jab-cross-low kick |
| Leg Kicks | Moderate; disrupts | Frequent; calves |
| Body Kicks | Occasional; midsection | Moderate; midsection |
| Head Kicks | Rare; selective | Occasional; power |
| Chains Kicks to Punches | Limited; for TDs | Effective; flows well |
CLINCH
| Attribute | Claudio Puelles | Joaquim Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Physical Strength | Solid; controls with grip | Solid; holds position |
| Technique | Proficient; trips/kneebars | Functional; knees to break |
| Knees | Moderate to body; for subs | Sharp to body; offensive |
| Elbows | Rare; defensive | Slicing; close-range |
| Defense vs. Knees/Elbows | Average; absorbs shots | Average; takes shots |
GRAPPLING
| Attribute | Claudio Puelles | Joaquim Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Wrestling from Shot | Elite; 7/12 TDs | Below average; 0.5 TD avg |
| Wrestling in Clinch | Strong; trips from fence | Functional; limited |
| Takedown Defense | Average; 55% defense | Weak; 40% defense |
| Return to Feet | Good; scrambles | Average; struggles under control |
| Submissions | Elite; 5 subs (3 kneebars) | Moderate; 2 subs (guillotine, armbar) |
| Defense/BJJ from Bottom | Solid; never submitted | Weak; controlled long |
| Top Control | Strong; heavy pressure | Functional; minimal time |
| Ground-and-Pound | Minimal; sub-focused | Moderate; 3 TKO wins |
INTANGIBLES
| Attribute | Claudio Puelles | Joaquim Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Athleticism/Strength | High; durable at 29 | Moderate; durable at 36 |
| Cardio | Average; fades late | Average; fades in decisions |
| Chin | Average; 2 TKO losses | Durable; 1 TKO loss |
| Recuperative Powers | Resilient; 3-1 post-losses | Resilient; 4-2 post-losses |
| Intelligence | High; grappling IQ | Moderate; aggressive, predictable |
Official Pick: Claudio Puelles via submission in Round 2
Reasoning: Puelles’ elite grappling (5 subs, 3 kneebars) and chain wrestling (7 TDs vs. Ziam) exploit Silva’s weak takedown defense (40%) and poor bottom game (controlled by Tsarukyan). Silva’s KO power (62% KO rate) threatens early, but Puelles’ durable chin (survived Hooker) and 72” reach keep him safe to shoot. Puelles secures a takedown and locks in a kneebar or RNC.
JOSE MEDINA VS DUSKO TODOROVIC
| Fighter | Jose Medina (“Chicho”) | Duško Todorović (“Thunder”) |
|---|---|---|
| Born | Oct 20, 1996 (age 28) | May 19, 1994 (age 31) |
| Division | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Height | 6’1” | 6’1” |
| Reach | 74” | 74” |
| Record | 11-5-0 (2 KOs, 4 subs, 5 decisions) | 12-6-0 (7 KOs, 1 sub, 4 decisions) |
| Association | Bolivia (Team Becerra) | Serbia (Serbian Battle Championship) |
| Stage of Career | Struggling prospect; #186 middleweight; 0-3 UFC, losses to Gadzhiyasulov, Reese, Gautier. | Veteran; #54 middleweight; 3-6 UFC, wins over Townsend, Pitolo, Wright; 3-fight skid. |
| Summary | Balanced (36% sub, 18% KO); aggressive but inconsistent. Must outwork Todorović. | Power striker (58% KO rate); weak grappling. Must land early KO. |
STRIKING
| Attribute | Jose Medina | Duško Todorović |
|---|---|---|
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hand Speed | Average; steady combos | Above average; quick bursts |
| Jab | Functional; sets entries | Sharp; sets power |
| Cross | Straight right; moderate power | Straight right; KO threat |
| Right Hook | Occasional; close-range | Frequent; banger |
| Overhand Right | Rare; power shot | Heavy; finishes |
| Uppercuts | Minimal; pocket | Pocket; accumulation |
| Solitary/Volume | Volume puncher; moderate output | Volume puncher; high output |
| Favorite Combos | Jab-cross; cross-low kick | 1-2-hook; jab-cross-low kick |
| Leg Kicks | Moderate; calves | Frequent; disrupts |
| Body Kicks | Occasional; accumulation | Moderate; midsection |
| Head Kicks | Rare; selective | Occasional; power |
| Chains Kicks to Punches | Functional; basic flow | Effective; flows well |
CLINCH
| Attribute | Jose Medina | Duško Todorović |
|---|---|---|
| Physical Strength | Solid; holds own | Solid; controls foes |
| Technique | Average; basic knees/trips | Proficient; knees/elbows |
| Knees | Moderate to body; defensive | Sharp to body; offensive |
| Elbows | Rare; short-range | Slicing; close-range |
| Defense vs. Knees/Elbows | Weak; KO’d in clinch | Average; takes shots |
GRAPPLING
| Attribute | Jose Medina | Duško Todorović |
|---|---|---|
| Wrestling from Shot | Average; 1/4 TDs | Below average; 0.8 TD avg |
| Wrestling in Clinch | Functional; limited | Functional; trips |
| Takedown Defense | Below average; 45% defense | Weak; 40% defense |
| Return to Feet | Average; struggles under control | Average; struggles under control |
| Submissions | Strong; 4 subs (guillotine, armbar) | Moderate; 1 sub (armbar) |
| Defense/BJJ from Bottom | Average; controlled long | Weak; controlled long |
| Top Control | Functional; 1:30 control | Functional; 2:00 control |
| Ground-and-Pound | Moderate; 1 TKO win | Strong; 3 TKO wins |
INTANGIBLES
| Attribute | Jose Medina | Duško Todorović |
|---|---|---|
| Athleticism/Strength | Moderate; durable at 28 | High; explosive at 31 |
| Cardio | Average; fades in decisions | Average; fades in decisions |
| Chin | Weak; 1 KO loss | Average; 3 TKO losses |
| Recuperative Powers | Resilient; 2-2 post-losses | Resilient; 2-3 post-losses |
| Intelligence | Moderate; tactical but predictable | Moderate; aggressive, reckless |
Official Pick: Duško Todorović via TKO in Round 1
Reasoning: Todorović’s power striking (58% KO rate, 7 KOs) and aggressive output (4.5 SLpM) exploit Medina’s weak chin (KO’d by Gautier) and poor striking defense. Medina’s grappling edge (4 subs) is neutralized by Todorović’s functional takedown defense and superior GnP (3 TKOs). Todorović lands a heavy overhand or elbow early.
SANTIAGO LUNA VS QUANG LE
| Fighter | Santiago Luna (“Borderboy”) | Quang Le (“Bang”) |
|---|---|---|
| Born | Jan 15, 2004 (age 21) | Mar 10, 1995 (age 30) |
| Division | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Height | 5’7” | 5’6” |
| Reach | Not listed (68” inferred) | 67” |
| Record | 6-0-0 (2 KOs, 4 subs, 0 decisions) | 9-4-0 (4 KOs, 2 subs, 3 decisions) |
| Association | Mexico (Tijuana, Baja California) | Vietnam (Phuket Top Team) |
| Stage of Career | Undefeated prospect; #52 featherweight Latin America; UFC debut on short notice. | Veteran; #61 bantamweight; 2-2 UFC, wins over Bolanos, Simmons. |
| Summary | Explosive finisher (100% finish rate); aggressive grappling, decent striking. Limited experience. | Aggressive striker (44% KO rate); decent power, grappling. Struggles vs. wrestlers. |
STRIKING
| Attribute | Santiago Luna | Quang Le |
|---|---|---|
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hand Speed | Above average; quick bursts | Above average; quick combos |
| Jab | Functional; sets power | Sharp; sets power |
| Cross | Straight right; KO threat | Straight right; KO threat |
| Right Hook | Occasional; close-range | Frequent; banger |
| Overhand Right | Heavy; finishes | Heavy; finishes |
| Uppercuts | Rare; pocket | Pocket; accumulation |
| Solitary/Volume | Solitary striker; power-focused | Volume puncher; high output |
| Favorite Combos | Jab-cross; cross-low kick | 1-2-hook; jab-cross-low kick |
| Leg Kicks | Moderate; disrupts | Frequent; calves |
| Body Kicks | Occasional; midsection | Moderate; midsection |
| Head Kicks | Rare; selective | Occasional; power |
| Chains Kicks to Punches | Functional; basic flow | Effective; flows well |
CLINCH
| Attribute | Santiago Luna | Quang Le |
|---|---|---|
| Physical Strength | Unconfirmed; limited exposure | Solid; holds position |
| Technique | Average; basic knees/trips | Functional; knees to break |
| Knees | Moderate to body; offensive | Sharp to body; offensive |
| Elbows | Rare; short-range | Slicing; close-range |
| Defense vs. Knees/Elbows | Unconfirmed; untested | Average; takes shots |
GRAPPLING
| Attribute | Santiago Luna | Quang Le |
|---|---|---|
| Wrestling from Shot | Above average; 2/3 TDs | Average; 1/3 TDs |
| Wrestling in Clinch | Functional; trips | Functional; trips |
| Takedown Defense | Unconfirmed; untested | Below average; 50% defense |
| Return to Feet | Unconfirmed; no bottom time | Average; struggles under control |
| Submissions | Strong; 4 subs (guillotine, armbar) | Moderate; 2 subs (guillotine, choke) |
| Defense/BJJ from Bottom | Unconfirmed; no ground defense | Average; controlled long |
| Top Control | Solid; controls for subs | Functional; 1:45 control |
| Ground-and-Pound | Moderate; 1 TKO win | Moderate; 2 TKO wins |
INTANGIBLES
| Attribute | Santiago Luna | Quang Le |
|---|---|---|
| Athleticism/Strength | High; explosive at 21 | Moderate; durable at 30 |
| Cardio | Unconfirmed; short fights | Average; fades in decisions |
| Chin | Unconfirmed; no damage taken | Average; 1 TKO loss |
| Recuperative Powers | Unconfirmed; undefeated | Resilient; 2-1 post-losses |
| Intelligence | Moderate; aggressive, limited experience | Moderate; aggressive, predictable |
Official Pick: Santiago Luna via submission in Round 2
Reasoning: Luna’s 100% finish rate (2 KOs, 4 subs) and youth (21) give him an edge over Le’s inconsistent UFC run (2-2). Luna’s grappling (4 subs) exploits Le’s weak takedown defense (50%, controlled by Gibson), likely securing a guillotine or armbar. Le’s striking power (44% KO rate) threatens early, but Luna’s untested chin and short-notice aggression (6-0, all finishes) overwhelm Le’s predictable style.
ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ VS DIEGO FERREIRA
| Fighter | Alexander Hernandez (“The Great Ape”) | Carlos Diego Ferreira (“The Brazilian Bad Boy”) |
|---|---|---|
| Born | Oct 1, 1992 (age 32) | Jan 18, 1985 (age 40) |
| Division | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Height | 5’9” | 5’9” |
| Reach | 72” | 74” |
| Record | 17-8-0 (8 KOs, 1 sub, 8 decisions) | 19-6-0 (5 KOs, 7 subs, 7 decisions) |
| Association | San Antonio, Texas, USA (Factory X) | McAllen, Texas, USA (Fortis MMA) |
| Stage of Career | Veteran; #39 lightweight; 9-7 UFC, wins over Dariush, Hooper; 3-fight win streak. | Veteran; #20 lightweight; 10-4 UFC, wins over Pettis, Taisumov; post-Dawson loss. |
| Summary | Explosive striker (47% KO rate); aggressive but inconsistent vs. grapplers. Must strike. | BJJ specialist (37% sub rate); aggressive striking, vulnerable to power. Must grapple. |
STRIKING
| Attribute | Alexander Hernandez | Carlos Diego Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hand Speed | Above average; quick combos | Average; technical combos |
| Jab | Sharp; sets power | Functional; sets TDs |
| Cross | Straight right; KO threat | Straight right; moderate power |
| Right Hook | Frequent; banger | Occasional; close-range |
| Overhand Right | Heavy; finishes | Heavy; KO threat |
| Uppercuts | Pocket; accumulation | Rare; pocket |
| Solitary/Volume | Volume puncher; high output | Volume puncher; moderate output |
| Favorite Combos | 1-2-hook; jab-cross-low kick | Jab-cross; cross-body kick |
| Leg Kicks | Frequent; calves | Moderate; disrupts |
| Body Kicks | Moderate; midsection | Frequent; midsection |
| Head Kicks | Rare; selective | Rare; selective |
| Chains Kicks to Punches | Effective; flows well | Functional; sets TDs |
CLINCH
| Attribute | Alexander Hernandez | Carlos Diego Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Physical Strength | Solid; wrestling grip | Solid; BJJ grip |
| Technique | Proficient; knees/punches | Proficient; knees/trips |
| Knees | Moderate to body; offensive | Sharp to body; offensive |
| Elbows | Slicing; close-range | Slicing; close-range |
| Defense vs. Knees/Elbows | Average; absorbs shots | Average; absorbs shots |
GRAPPLING
| Attribute | Alexander Hernandez | Carlos Diego Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Wrestling from Shot | Strong; 2.5 TD avg, 45% accuracy | Average; 1.8 TD avg, 40% accuracy |
| Wrestling in Clinch | Functional; trips | Strong; trips |
| Takedown Defense | Average; 60% defense | Average; 55% defense |
| Return to Feet | Good; scrambles | Good; scrambles |
| Submissions | Limited; 1 sub (armbar) | Elite; 7 subs (RNC, guillotine, armbar) |
| Defense/BJJ from Bottom | Average; submitted once | Strong; never submitted |
| Top Control | Solid; 2:30 control | Solid; heavy pressure |
| Ground-and-Pound | Strong; 4 TKO wins | Moderate; 3 TKO wins |
INTANGIBLES
| Attribute | Alexander Hernandez | Carlos Diego Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Athleticism/Strength | High; explosive at 32 | Moderate; durable at 40 |
| Cardio | Above average; maintains pace | Above average; maintains pace |
| Chin | Average; 3 TKO losses | Average; 2 KO/TKO losses |
| Recuperative Powers | Resilient; 5-4 post-losses | Resilient; 6-2 post-losses |
| Intelligence | Moderate; aggressive, reckless | High; technical BJJ/fight IQ |
Official Pick: Diego Ferreira via submission in Round 3
Reasoning: Ferreira’s elite BJJ (7 subs, 3rd-degree black belt) and technical grappling exploit Hernandez’s average takedown defense (60%) and vulnerability to submissions (submitted by Moicano). Hernandez’s striking power (47% KO rate) and recent momentum (three-fight win streak) threaten early, but Ferreira’s durability (never submitted, 6-2 post-losses) and clinch work (vs. Pettis) drag the fight to the mat. Ferreira secures an RNC or guillotine in a grinding battle.
KELVIN GASTELUM VS DUSTIN STOLTZFUS
| Fighter | Kelvin Gastelum | Dustin Stoltzfus |
|---|---|---|
| Born | Oct 24, 1991 (age 33) | Nov 15, 1991 (age 33) |
| Division | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Height | 5’9” | 6’0” |
| Reach | 71.5” | 75” |
| Record | 19-10-0, 1 NC (6 KOs, 4 subs, 9 decisions) | 16-7-0 (5 KOs, 1 sub, 10 decisions) |
| Association | Yuma, Arizona, USA (Kings MMA) | Lancaster, Pennsylvania, USA (trained in Germany) |
| Stage of Career | Veteran; #24 middleweight; 12-8 UFC, 3-7 in last 10; Hall of Fame (UFC 236). | Veteran; #78 middleweight; 3-6 UFC, wins over Soriano, Ferreira. |
| Summary | Compact southpaw striker (32% KO rate); durable but inconsistent. Must strike. | Gritty wrestler (31% KO rate); improved but weak chin. Must grapple. |
STRIKING
| Attribute | Kelvin Gastelum | Dustin Stoltzfus |
|---|---|---|
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Hand Speed | Above average; quick combos | Average; steady combos |
| Jab | Sharp; sets power | Functional; sets entries |
| Cross | Straight left; KO threat | Straight right; moderate power |
| Right Hook | Frequent; banger | Occasional; close-range |
| Overhand Left/Right | Heavy; finishes | Heavy; KO threat |
| Uppercuts | Pocket; accumulation | Rare; pocket |
| Solitary/Volume | Volume puncher; high output (5.2 SLpM) | Volume puncher; moderate output (3.8 SLpM) |
| Favorite Combos | 1-2-hook; jab-cross-low kick | Jab-cross; cross-low kick |
| Leg Kicks | Moderate; calves | Frequent; disrupts |
| Body Kicks | Occasional; midsection | Occasional; midsection |
| Head Kicks | Rare; selective | Rare; selective |
| Chains Kicks to Punches | Effective; flows well | Functional; basic flow |
CLINCH
| Attribute | Kelvin Gastelum | Dustin Stoltzfus |
|---|---|---|
| Physical Strength | Solid; wrestling grip | Solid; controls with grip |
| Technique | Proficient; knees/punches | Proficient; knees/trips |
| Knees | Moderate to body; offensive | Moderate to body; offensive |
| Elbows | Slicing; close-range | Slicing; close-range |
| Defense vs. Knees/Elbows | Average; absorbs shots | Weak; KO’d in close |
GRAPPLING
| Attribute | Kelvin Gastelum | Dustin Stoltzfus |
|---|---|---|
| Wrestling from Shot | Strong; 2.0 TD avg, 42% accuracy | Strong; 2.2 TD avg, 40% accuracy |
| Wrestling in Clinch | Functional; trips | Functional; trips |
| Takedown Defense | Average; 65% defense | Average; 50% defense |
| Return to Feet | Good; scrambles | Average; struggles under control |
| Submissions | Moderate; 4 subs (RNC, guillotine) | Limited; 1 sub (armbar) |
| Defense/BJJ from Bottom | Average; submitted once | Weak; submitted twice |
| Top Control | Solid; 2:15 control | Solid; 2:00 control |
| Ground-and-Pound | Strong; 4 TKO wins | Moderate; 2 TKO wins |
INTANGIBLES
| Attribute | Kelvin Gastelum | Dustin Stoltzfus |
|---|---|---|
| Athleticism/Strength | High; durable at 33 | Moderate; durable at 33 |
| Cardio | Average; fades in decisions | Above average; maintains pace |
| Chin | Strong; 1 TKO loss | Weak; 2 KO losses |
| Recuperative Powers | Resilient; 5-4 post-losses | Resilient; 3-2 post-losses |
| Intelligence | Moderate; aggressive, flat-footed | Moderate; tactical, predictable |
Official Pick: Kelvin Gastelum via TKO in Round 2
Reasoning: Gastelum’s aggressive southpaw striking (5.2 SLpM, 32% KO rate) and durability (1 TKO loss) exploit Stoltzfus’ weak chin (2 KO losses) and average striking defense. Stoltzfus’ wrestling (2.2 TD avg) threatens, but Gastelum’s 65% takedown defense and scrambling ability (vs. Hendricks) keep the fight standing. Gastelum’s experience against elite competition (Adesanya, Souza) and power (6 KOs) overwhelm Stoltzfus’ gritty but limited game, landing a TKO to avoid a potential roster cut.
RAFA GARCIA VS JARED GORDON
| Fighter | Rafa Garcia (“Gifted”) | Jared Gordon (“Flash”) |
|---|---|---|
| Born | Aug 5, 1994 (age 31) | Sep 6, 1988 (age 36) |
| Division | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Height | 5’7” | 5’9” |
| Reach | 70” | 70.5” |
| Record | 17-4-0 (1 KO, 5 subs, 11 decisions) | 21-7-0, 1 NC (7 KOs, 1 sub, 13 decisions) |
| Association | Mexico (Team Alpha Male) | Queens, New York, USA (Renzo Gracie Academy) |
| Stage of Career | Veteran; #48 lightweight; 5-4 UFC, win over Pichel. | Veteran; #25 lightweight; 9-6 UFC, 2-fight KO streak (Moises, Madsen). |
| Summary | Durable grappler (29% sub rate); defensive striking. Must grapple. | Gritty volume striker (33% KO rate); durable. Must outstrike. |
STRIKING
| Attribute | Rafa Garcia | Jared Gordon |
|---|---|---|
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hand Speed | Average; technical setups | Above average; quick combos |
| Jab | Functional; sets entries | Sharp; sets power |
| Cross | Straight right; moderate power | Straight right; KO threat |
| Right Hook | Occasional; close-range | Frequent; banger |
| Overhand Right | Rare; power shot | Heavy; finishes |
| Uppercuts | Minimal; pocket | Pocket; accumulation |
| Solitary/Volume | Volume puncher; moderate output (4.01 SLpM) | Volume puncher; high output (5.67 SLpM) |
| Favorite Combos | Jab-cross; hook-body kick | 1-2-hook; jab-cross-low kick |
| Leg Kicks | Moderate; disrupts | Frequent; calves |
| Body Kicks | Occasional; midsection | Moderate; midsection |
| Head Kicks | Rare; selective | Rare; selective |
| Chains Kicks to Punches | Functional; sets grappling | Effective; flows well |
CLINCH
| Attribute | Rafa Garcia | Jared Gordon |
|---|---|---|
| Physical Strength | Solid; BJJ grip | Solid; wrestling grip |
| Technique | Proficient; knees/trips | Proficient; knees/punches |
| Knees | Moderate to body; offensive | Sharp to body; offensive |
| Elbows | Rare; short-range | Slicing; close-range |
| Defense vs. Knees/Elbows | Average; absorbs shots | Average; absorbs shots |
GRAPPLING
| Attribute | Rafa Garcia | Jared Gordon |
|---|---|---|
| Wrestling from Shot | Above average; 2.0 TD avg, 38% accuracy | Strong; 2.5 TD avg, 40% accuracy |
| Wrestling in Clinch | Strong; trips | Functional; trips |
| Takedown Defense | Average; 55% defense | Average; 60% defense |
| Return to Feet | Good; scrambles | Good; scrambles |
| Submissions | Strong; 5 subs (RNC, armbar) | Limited; 1 sub (armbar) |
| Defense/BJJ from Bottom | Average; TKO’d once | Average; submitted once |
| Top Control | Solid; 2:30 control | Solid; 2:00 control |
| Ground-and-Pound | Minimal; sub-focused | Moderate; 3 TKO wins |
INTANGIBLES
| Attribute | Rafa Garcia | Jared Gordon |
|---|---|---|
| Athleticism/Strength | Moderate; durable at 31 | Moderate; durable at 36 |
| Cardio | Strong; excels in decisions | Strong; maintains pace |
| Chin | Average; 1 TKO loss | Average; 1 TKO loss, NC via headbutt |
| Recuperative Powers | Resilient; 4-1 post-losses | Resilient; 5-3 post-losses |
| Intelligence | High; tactical BJJ/pressure | Moderate; gritty, predictable |
Official Pick: Jared Gordon via decision
Reasoning: Gordon’s superior striking volume (5.67 SLpM, 55% accuracy) and recent KO power (vs. Moises, Madsen) overwhelm Garcia’s defensive striking (4.01 SLpM, 43% accuracy). Garcia’s grappling (5 subs) threatens, but Gordon’s 60% takedown defense and scrambling ability (vs. Solecki) keep the fight standing. Gordon’s durability and cardio (13 decision wins) outlast Garcia’s pressure, securing a decision win leveraging his 70-71% implied win probability.
ROB FONT VS DAVID MARTINEZ
| Fighter | Rob Font | David Martinez (“Black Spartan”) |
|---|---|---|
| Born | Jun 25, 1987 (age 38) | Aug 13, 1997 (age 27) |
| Division | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Height | 5’8” | 5’8” |
| Reach | 71.5” | Not listed (70” inferred) |
| Record | 22-8-0 (9 KOs, 4 subs, 9 decisions) | 12-1-0 (6 KOs, 3 subs, 3 decisions) |
| Association | Massachusetts, USA (New England Cartel) | Mexico (Entram Gym) |
| Stage of Career | Veteran; #9 bantamweight; 12-7 UFC, 2-fight win streak. | Prospect; #67 bantamweight; 1-0 UFC, debut KO. |
| Summary | Technical striker (41% KO rate); elite boxing, durable. Must outstrike. | Explosive finisher (50% KO rate); power striking. Must land early. |
STRIKING
| Attribute | Rob Font | David Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hand Speed | Above average; crisp combos | Above average; quick bursts |
| Jab | Sharp; sets power | Functional; sets power |
| Cross | Straight right; KO threat | Straight right; KO threat |
| Right Hook | Frequent; banger | Frequent; banger |
| Overhand Right | Heavy; finishes | Heavy; finishes |
| Uppercuts | Pocket; accumulation | Rare; pocket |
| Solitary/Volume | Volume puncher; high output (5.67 SLpM) | Solitary striker; power-focused (4.5 SLpM) |
| Favorite Combos | Jab-cross-hook; 1-2-low kick | Jab-cross; cross-low kick |
| Leg Kicks | Moderate; calves | Moderate; disrupts |
| Body Kicks | Occasional; midsection | Occasional; midsection |
| Head Kicks | Rare; selective | Rare; selective |
| Chains Kicks to Punches | Effective; seamless flow | Functional; basic flow |
CLINCH
| Attribute | Rob Font | David Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Physical Strength | Solid; holds position | Solid; holds own |
| Technique | Proficient; punches/elbows | Average; basic knees/trips |
| Knees | Moderate to body; defensive | Moderate to body; offensive |
| Elbows | Slicing; close-range | Rare; short-range |
| Defense vs. Knees/Elbows | Average; absorbs shots | Unconfirmed; limited exposure |
GRAPPLING
| Attribute | Rob Font | David Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Wrestling from Shot | Average; 0.8 TD avg, 35% accuracy | Average; 1/3 TDs |
| Wrestling in Clinch | Functional; limited | Functional; trips |
| Takedown Defense | Average; 60% defense | Unconfirmed; untested |
| Return to Feet | Good; scrambles | Unconfirmed; limited bottom time |
| Submissions | Moderate; 4 subs (guillotine, RNC) | Strong; 3 subs (armbar, choke) |
| Defense/BJJ from Bottom | Average; controlled long | Unconfirmed; no UFC ground defense |
| Top Control | Functional; minimal time | Functional; 1:30 control |
| Ground-and-Pound | Moderate; 4 TKO wins | Moderate; 2 TKO wins |
INTANGIBLES
| Attribute | Rob Font | David Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Athleticism/Strength | Moderate; durable at 38 | High; explosive at 27 |
| Cardio | Strong; maintains pace | Unconfirmed; short UFC fight |
| Chin | Strong; never KO’d | Unconfirmed; no UFC damage |
| Recuperative Powers | Resilient; 5-3 post-losses | Unconfirmed; 1 loss pre-UFC |
| Intelligence | High; technical boxing/fight IQ | Moderate; aggressive, limited experience |
Official Pick: Rob Font via decision
Reasoning: Font’s technical striking (5.67 SLpM, 46% accuracy) and experience against elite competition (Aldo, Garbrandt) overwhelm Martinez’s raw power (50% KO rate) and limited UFC exposure (1 fight). Martinez’s aggressive striking (vs. Oliveira) threatens early, but Font’s durability (never KO’d) and cardio (9 decision wins) neutralize the upset potential. Font’s 60% takedown defense counters Martinez’s untested grappling, allowing Font to control range and outpoint the prospect over three rounds at UFC Fight Night 259 on extending his win streak to three.
DIEGO LOPES VS JEAN SILVA
| Fighter | Diego Lopes | Jean Silva (“Lord”) |
|---|---|---|
| Born | Dec 30, 1994 (age 30) | Jun 9, 1989 (age 36) |
| Division | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Height | 5’11” | 5’7” |
| Reach | 72.5” | 69” |
| Record | 26-7-0 (10 KOs, 12 subs, 4 decisions) | 16-2-0 (10 KOs, 2 subs, 4 decisions) |
| Association | Brazil/Mexico (Lobo Gym) | Brazil (Fighting Nerds) |
| Stage of Career | #2 featherweight; 5-2 UFC, post-title loss. | #8 featherweight; 5-0 UFC, 13-fight win streak. |
| Summary | Dynamic finisher (38% KO, 46% sub); elite BJJ, versatile striking. | Lethal striker (62% KO rate); submission threat, strong TD defense. |
STRIKING
| Attribute | Diego Lopes | Jean Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hand Speed | Above average; fluid combos | Above average; rapid bursts |
| Jab | Sharp; controls range | Crisp; sets power |
| Cross | Straight right; TKO threat | Straight right; KO threat |
| Right Hook | Frequent; close-range | Frequent; devastating |
| Overhand Right | Heavy; finishes | Heavy; finishes |
| Uppercuts | Effective in pocket | Effective in pocket |
| Solitary/Volume | Volume puncher; 5.1 SLpM | Volume puncher; 6.2 SLpM |
| Favorite Combos | Jab-cross-hook; cross-low kick | Jab-cross-hook; cross-body kick |
| Leg Kicks | Frequent; calves | Frequent; disrupts |
| Body Kicks | Moderate; midsection | Moderate; midsection |
| Head Kicks | Occasional; power | Occasional; power |
| Chains Kicks to Punches | Seamless; flows to grappling | Smooth; flows to combos |
CLINCH
| Attribute | Diego Lopes | Jean Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Physical Strength | Strong; BJJ grip | Solid; maintains position |
| Technique | Proficient; knees/trips | Functional; knees to break |
| Knees | Sharp to body; offensive | Sharp to body; offensive |
| Elbows | Slicing; close-range | Slicing; close-range |
| Defense vs. Knees/Elbows | Strong; 70% clinch defense | Average; absorbs shots |
GRAPPLING
| Attribute | Diego Lopes | Jean Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Wrestling from Shot | Above average; 2.5 TD avg, 45% accuracy | Below average; 0.5 TD avg |
| Wrestling in Clinch | Strong; trips | Functional; defends trips |
| Takedown Defense | Strong; 70% defense | Strong; 93% defense |
| Return to Feet | Excellent; scrambles | Functional; limited bottom time |
| Submissions | Elite; 12 subs (RNC, guillotine, armbar) | Moderate; 2 subs (ninja choke) |
| Defense/BJJ from Bottom | Strong; never submitted | Functional; untested in extended time |
| Top Control | Heavy; 3:00 control | Functional; brief control |
| Ground-and-Pound | Potent; 2 TKO wins | Potent; 4 TKO wins |
INTANGIBLES
| Attribute | Diego Lopes | Jean Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Athleticism/Strength | High; explosive at 30 | Moderate; durable at 36 |
| Cardio | Strong; sustains five rounds | Average; untested in decisions |
| Chin | Strong; never KO’d | Strong; never KO’d |
| Recuperative Powers | Resilient; 5-1 post-loss | Resilient; 2-0 post-regional losses |
| Intelligence | High; adjusts mid-fight | Above average; strategic sub vs. Mitchell |
Official Pick: Diego Lopes via submission in Round 3
Reasoning: Lopes’ elite BJJ (12 subs, 46% finish rate) and wrestling (2.5 TD avg, 45% accuracy) give him a significant edge over Silva, whose grappling, while proven against Mitchell (ninja choke, 93% TD defense), is less versatile (2 career subs). Silva’s striking (6.2 SLpM, 62% KO rate) is a major threat, especially early, but Lopes’ durability (never KO’d) and comparable output (5.1 SLpM) keep him in the fight. Lopes’ experience against top-tier opponents (Volkanovski, Ortega) and five-round cardio (vs. Ige) outmatch Silva’s untested endurance in longer fights (all UFC finishes). Lopes’ height (5’11”) and reach (72.5”) advantages, combined with his ability to chain strikes into takedowns, likely lead to a grappling exchange where he secures an RNC or guillotine in Round 3 at UFC Fight Night 259 on Sep 13, 2025. Silva’s -194 favorite odds (FanDuel) reflect his momentum, but Lopes’ +150 underdog status undervalues his grappling dominance.
RESULTS
| PREDICTION | RESULT |
|---|---|
| Diego Lopes via submission in Round 3 | |
| Rob Font via decision | |
| Jared Gordon via decision | |
| Kelvin Gastelum via TKO in Round 2 | |
| Diego Ferreira via submission in Round 3 | |
| Santiago Luna via submission in Round 2 | |
| Duško Todorović via TKO in Round 1 | |
| Claudio Puelles via submission in Round 2 | |
| Tatiana Suarez via decision | |
| Jesus Aguilar via submission in Round 2 | |
| Zachary Reese via TKO in Round 1 | |
| Alessandro Costa via TKO in Round 2 | |
| Alice Pereira via KO in Round 1 | |
| Rodrigo Sezinando via submission in Round 2 |
