Under Construction

MATLOCK

WELCOME TO THE END OF THE INTERNET

Navigation


Fist Icon

Click to unleash fight tunes!

Play Pause

Get Netscape Now!

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 9, Week 5

Shanelle Dyer vs Carol Foro

Fighter Comparison

Field Shanelle Dyer Carol Foro
Fighter Shanelle Dyer (“Nightmare”) Carol Foro
Born May 5, 2001 1996 (estimated)
Division Women’s Flyweight Women’s Flyweight
Height 5’4” (1.63 m) 5’3” (1.59 m)
Reach 64” (1.63 m) 62” (1.59 m)
Record 6-0-0 8-1-0
Association Great Britain Top Team (London, England) / Team Underground MMA Unknown (Brazilian regional gyms, Jungle Fight affiliates)
Stage of Career Rising undefeated prospect; 24 years old with 3 years pro experience, parted ways with PFL after 3-0 run (including head-kick KO vs. Torchinava and split decision vs. Scatizzi in 2024 playoffs); Former amateur standout (8-3 record, multiple titles in ECMMA, CWSE, Four Nations); UFC debut opportunity via DWCS Week 5 on September 9, 2025, vs. Carol Foro; hyped UK talent with Muay Thai background (27 world/European/British titles), seeking contract to launch UFC career. Rising finisher; 29 years old with 5 years pro experience, Jungle Fight Strawweight Champion (defended 1x); 8-1 record with 7-fight win streak (all KOs/TKOs since Jan 2024 loss); DWCS debut vs. Shanelle Dyer on September 9, 2025, seeking UFC contract after regional dominance in Brazil.

Summary

  • Shanelle Dyer: A flashy striker with knockout power from Muay Thai roots (67% KO rate, 4 TKOs in 6 wins), Dyer overwhelms with explosive head kicks and spinning elbows but has unproven grappling depth in pro (no subs, limited ground time). Her PFL run showcased fan-friendly violence and composure in decisions, but regional opposition raises questions on elite competition; excels in stand-up chaos against aggressive foes but vulnerable to wrestlers due to average TD defense (estimated 60% from amateurs). At 24, her youth and striking creativity make her a high-upside prospect for UFC flyweight, but she must demonstrate well-roundedness vs. Foro’s power; win here secures contract and fast-track to rankings.
  • Carol Foro: A power puncher with brutal finishing instinct (88% KO rate, 7 TKOs in 8 wins), Foro crushes with body shots and ground-and-pound but has limited exposure against elite strikers (sole loss by decision). Her streak includes quick KOs vs. low-level opposition (e.g., Esquer TKO Rd. 1), showcasing aggression and power; however, average cardio (most fights under 5 min) and untested grappling (1 sub win early) raise questions. At 29, her compact build suits grinding, but she must handle Dyer’s range and kicks; win earns contract, positioning her as Brazilian flyweight prospect.

Striking

Aspect Shanelle Dyer Carol Foro
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Hand Speed Above average; explosive Muay Thai bursts for power shots, 55% accuracy estimated from PFL. Average; quick for power bursts, 50% accuracy estimated.
Jab Sharp lead for range; sets up knees and hooks, effective with feints (40% landing in amateurs/pros). Basic lead for setups; low volume, closes distance.
Cross Straight right in 1-2s; solid setup power, no KOs but rocks opponents (e.g., vs. Simkova). Straight right in 1-2s; solid power, contributes to TKOs.
Right Hook Frequent in flurries; close-range banger after level changes, contributes to TKOs. Frequent in flurries; close-range damage (e.g., vs. Mestrinha).
Overhand Left Occasional; prefers spinning techniques over loops. Occasional; prefers hooks over loops.
Uppercuts Rare; more knees in clinch than uppercuts. Used in clinch; dirty boxing tool.
Solitary Striker or Volume Puncher Solitary striker; moderate output (3.8 SLpM estimated), quality power over volume (absorbs 2.5 per min., 58% defense), emphasizing KOs. Solitary striker; low-output power (3.2 SLpM estimated), quality KOs over volume (absorbs 3.0 per min., 55% defense).
Favorite Combinations 1-2 into knee/head kick; jab-hook with body kicks (e.g., 50% body strikes vs. Cifuentes). 1-2-hook into knees; jab-body punch (e.g., 40% body vs. Pereira).
Leg Kicks Moderate low kicks for setup (25% to legs); disrupts rushers but not primary. Moderate lows for disruption (20% to legs).
Body Kicks Effective roundhouses; targets midsection to gas (30% output). Frequent roundhouses; targets ribs to weaken (25% output).
Head Kicks Signature; devastating high kicks finished Torchinava (KO of year contender), 20% of finishes. Rare; head strikes 55%, power-focused.
Chains Kicks to Punches Fluid; transitions kicks to hands or spins, using angles to evade. Basic; uses kicks to set punches, limited fluidity.

Clinch

Aspect Shanelle Dyer Carol Foro
Physical Strength Solid grip and core; uses Muay Thai leverage to control shorter foes. Good grip; holds vs. similar sizes but overpowered by taller (e.g., vs. Nica).
Technique Proficient dirty boxing; knees dominate, advancing forward (e.g., vs. Eszer TKO setup). Functional; knees/elbow slices control (e.g., pressured Esquer).
Knees Vicious short to body/thigh; KO’d Simkova with flying knee. Sharp to body; accumulates in KOs.
Elbows Sharp slices; defensive in close, accumulating damage. Cutting in close; offensive tool.
Defense Against Knees/Elbows Average; 60% clinch defense, vulnerable to prolonged ties. Average; 55% defense, vulnerable to volume.

Grappling

Aspect Shanelle Dyer Carol Foro
Wrestling from a Shot Unproven; 0.5 TD avg. (prefers reactive sprawls over offensive shots). Average; 1.0 TD avg., 40% accuracy; reactive.
Wrestling in the Clinch Functional; trips from wall but minimal pro exposure. Functional; trips from wall but reversed.
Takedown Defense Average (60% estimated from amateurs); sprawls ok but exposed to chains (losses to Bannon/Petrovic). Below average (55% estimated); sprawls ok but exposed.
Ability to Return to Feet Good; quick scrambles if taken down (no pro ground time). Good; scrambles from guard.
Submissions None; focuses on stand-ups over hunts (0.0 sub avg.), amateur RNC win. Limited; 1 early sub (armbar); 0.2 sub avg., GnP-focused.
Defense/BJJ from the Bottom Functional; guard retention from amateurs, no pro subs eaten. Average; retention but no elite sweeps.
Top Control Rare; when achieved, uses GnP for TKOs. Solid; GnP for TKOs.
Ground-and-Pound Moderate; short elbows from top to finish (e.g., vs. Eszer). Active; short punches finish (multiple TKOs).

Intangibles

Aspect Shanelle Dyer Carol Foro
Athleticism/General Physical Strength High; explosive striker with Muay Thai agility at 24. Solid; aggressive power at 29.
Cardio Strong; decisions without fading, but untested in 5-rounders. Average; early finishes mask potential fades.
Chin Untested in pros; absorbs minimally, amateur losses by GnP. Durable; absorbs well in KOs, sole loss by decision.
Recuperative Powers Resilient; rebounded from amateur losses to 6-0 pro streak. Strong; 7-fight KO streak post-loss.
Intelligence High; adaptive striking IQ, learns from high-level sparring (Pickett/Wood). High; tactical aggression in regional wars.

Official Pick

Shanelle Dyer via TKO in Round 2.

Reasoning: Foro will likely land early and often as Dyer establishes her range. I wouldn’t be surprised if Dyer is hurt or struggles with Foro. However, If Dyer can survive and establish her range, I anticipate her surviving the early onslaught for a TKO finish in round 2. If not, we’re in for a battle.


Chasen Blair vs Samuel Sanches

Fighter Comparison

Field Chasen Blair Samuel Sanches
Fighter Chasen Blair (“Mestizo”) Samuel Sanches (“The Prodigy”)
Born October 14, 1998 January 28, 2003
Division Lightweight Lightweight
Height 5’10” 6’0”
Reach 71” 72” (estimated)
Record 7-3-0 10-1-0
Association MMA Fight Academy (Carlsbad, CA) Galpão da Luta (Salvador, Bahia, Brazil)
Stage of Career Rising prospect in early prime; 26 years old with 5 years pro experience, recent sub win over Florin Pîrtea at Cage Warriors 177 (Sep 2024); 7-3 record with 3 wins by sub, 2 by KO; DWCS Week 5 bout vs. Samuel Sanches on Sep 9, 2025, for UFC contract after previous DWCS loss to Kody Steele (Oct 2024); former UNC wrestler (redshirt sophomore at 184 lbs), transitioning from amateur wrestling to pro MMA with Cage Warriors experience. Rising undefeated streak prospect; 22 years old with 4 years pro experience, 10-1 record with 7-fight win streak (mix of KOs/subs); Recent TF win (Mar 2025); DWCS Week 5 vs. Chasen Blair on Sep 9, 2025, for UFC contract; Brazilian regional standout (Jungle Fight affiliates), coached by Yuri Moura/Herrick Marinho, seeking global breakout.

Summary

  • Chasen Blair: A wrestling-based grappler with solid submissions (43% sub rate) and improving striking, Blair uses chain wrestling and ground control for wins but has vulnerabilities in striking defense against power punchers (2 KO losses). His recent sub streak highlights BJJ growth (brown belt), but low volume striking (estimated 3.5 SLpM) and cardio in decisions (43% decisions) need refinement; excels against regional grapplers but untested vs. elite strikers like Sanches. At 26, his youth and athleticism make him a UFC-ready prospect if he shores up stand-up; favored in DWCS due to experience, win could launch top-15 trajectory.
  • Samuel Sanches: A versatile finisher with power striking and BJJ (black belt under Moura), Sanches boasts 70% finish rate (4 KOs, 3 subs) but sole loss by decision exposes cardio in longer fights. His streak includes quick KOs vs. regional foes, showcasing aggression and transitions; however, untested vs. wrestlers like Blair (estimated 60% TD def.). At 22, his height/reach and youth make him a dynamic prospect, but he must handle grappling pressure; favored for explosiveness, win earns UFC spot in stacked lightweight.

Striking

Aspect Chasen Blair Samuel Sanches
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Hand Speed Average; quick setups for wrestling entries, 45% accuracy estimated. Above average; quick for setups, 50% accuracy estimated.
Jab Functional jab for distance; uses to paw and set up takedowns, but infrequent. Sharp lead for range; sets up combos, 45% landing.
Cross Straight right in 1-2s; basic power, no KO wins via punches. Straight right in 1-2s; decent power, 1 KO win.
Right Hook Occasional in flurries; close-range body work. Frequent in flurries; close-range threat.
Overhand Left Minimal; prefers level changes over power shots. Occasional power shot; selective.
Uppercuts Rare; more clinch knees than uppercuts. Used in clinch; dirty boxing tool.
Solitary Striker or Volume Puncher Solitary striker; low-output (3.5 SLpM estimated), setups for grappling over damage (absorbs 3.0 per min., 55% defense). Volume puncher; balanced output (4.0 SLpM estimated), mixes levels (absorbs 3.5 per min., 55% defense).
Favorite Combinations 1-2 into clinch; jab-body kick to close distance. 1-2-uppercut into TD; jab-hook-body kick.
Leg Kicks Moderate low kicks for disruption (20% to legs). Strong lows; 25% to legs for disruption.
Body Kicks Frequent to wear down; targets midsection (25% output). Frequent roundhouses; targets midsection (20% output).
Head Kicks Rare; head strikes 30%, cautious style. Rare; head strikes 55%, accumulation.
Chains Kicks to Punches Basic; uses kicks to set takedowns, limited fluidity. Effective; flows into grappling.

Clinch

Aspect Chasen Blair Samuel Sanches
Physical Strength Solid grip from wrestling; holds against similar grapplers but tires vs. power. Good grip and explosiveness; overpowers in ties.
Technique Proficient; knees and trips for transitions. Proficient; knees/elbow set up takedowns.
Knees Sharp to body; wrestling influence in short knees. Sharp to body; transitions to subs.
Elbows Sparing slices; more defensive than offensive. Slicing in close; defensive.
Defense Against Knees/Elbows Average; good head slips but vulnerable to pressure. Solid; 65% clinch defense.

Grappling

Aspect Chasen Blair Samuel Sanches
Wrestling from a Shot Strong; chain wrestling from college base (2.5 TD avg. estimated), reactive shots. Average; prefers reactive (2.0 TD avg. estimated).
Wrestling in the Clinch Solid; trips and sweeps from wall (e.g., vs. Pîrtea). Strong; trips/sweeps from wall.
Takedown Defense Functional (65% estimated); sprawls well but stuffed by elites (loss to Steele). Functional (60% estimated); sprawls well.
Ability to Return to Feet Excellent; explosive wall-walks and scrambles. Excellent; quick scrambles.
Submissions Proficient; 3 career subs (RNC vs. Pîrtea, arm-triangle); brown belt shines in transitions (1.0 sub avg.). Elite; 3 career subs (various chokes/armbars), black belt transitions (0.8 sub avg.).
Defense/BJJ from the Bottom Strong; sweeps and reversals from guard. Outstanding; sweeps/reversals.
Top Control Solid; maintains for subs or decisions, positional focus. Dominant; pressure for GnP/subs.
Ground-and-Pound Minimal; positional over strikes, no TKO wins from top. Active; short strikes set up chokes.

Intangibles

Aspect Chasen Blair Samuel Sanches
Athleticism/General Physical Strength High; agile wrestler with explosiveness at 26. Elite; agile at 22 with BJJ flexibility.
Cardio Strong; decisions without fading (e.g., Cage Warriors bouts). Average; finishes early, untested in decisions.
Chin Durable; TKO’d once early but absorbs well recently. Durable; absorbs minimally in streak.
Recuperative Powers Resilient; rebounded from DWCS loss with sub win. Strong; 7-win streak post-loss.
Intelligence High; tactical wrestling, composes under pressure. High; technical wizard, composes in pressure.

Official Pick

Samuel Sanches via submission in Round 2.

Reasoning: Sanches’ youth, reach, and finishing versatility (70% finish rate) give him the edge over Blair’s wrestling in a stand-up heavy early fight, where Sanches’ power striking exploits Blair’s defense (exposed in DWCS loss to Steele). Blair’s chain wrestling threatens control, but Sanches’ BJJ black belt and transitions lead to a sub off the bottom or scramble, earning the UFC contract on DWCS Week 5, Sep 9, 2025.


Felipe Franco vs Freddy Vidal

Fighter Comparison

Field Felipe Franco Freddy Vidal
Fighter Felipe Franco (“Negão”) Freddy Vidal (“The Barbarian”)
Born 1995 (estimated) 1995 (estimated)
Division Light Heavyweight Light Heavyweight
Height 6’1” 6’2”
Reach 75” (estimated) 76” (estimated)
Record 8-0-0 3-0-0
Association Unknown (Salvador, Bahia, Brazil regional gyms) Longo’s MMA (New York, NY)
Stage of Career Undefeated rising prospect; 30 years old with 5 years pro experience, 8-0 record with 5 KOs/TKOs and 3 subs; Recent wins in Brazilian regionals like Demo Fight (TKO vs. Lucas Nascimento, 2024); DWCS Week 5 bout vs. Freddy Vidal on Sep 9, 2025, for UFC contract; Brazilian regional standout aiming for global breakout. Undefeated regional prospect; 30 years old with 2 years pro experience, 3-0 record with 2 KOs and 1 decision; Recent TKO win over Brandon VanVleck at Flex Fights (Jul 2023), unanimous decision over Mike Kennedy at LFA 194 (Oct 2024); DWCS Week 5 vs. Felipe Franco on Sep 9, 2025, for UFC contract; New York-based fighter with amateur background, seeking UFC entry.

Summary

  • Felipe Franco: A powerful finisher with knockout-heavy style (63% KO rate) and opportunistic subs from BJJ base, Franco dominates regionals with aggressive pressure and ground-and-pound but has untested cardio in decisions (all wins by finish). His streak includes quick TKOs vs. low-level opposition, showcasing raw power and wrestling; however, limited exposure to elite strikers and average TD defense (estimated 60%) raise questions. At 30, his size and finishing threat make him a DWCS favorite vs. Vidal’s experience, but he must handle stand-up wars; win earns UFC spot, positioning him as Brazilian LHW prospect.
  • Freddy Vidal: An aggressive striker with knockout power (67% KO rate) and solid wrestling, Vidal pressures with heavy hands and clinch work but has untested sub defense and cardio in longer fights (1 decision). His short pro career shows promise in regional promotions like LFA/Flex Fights, but limited experience vs. finishers like Franco (estimated 65% TD def.). At 30, his size and durability make him a DWCS contender, but he must avoid ground; win positions him for UFC lightweight/LHW, loss stalls momentum.

Striking

Aspect Felipe Franco Freddy Vidal
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Hand Speed Average; quick for power bursts, 50% accuracy estimated. Above average; explosive for power, 50% accuracy estimated.
Jab Basic lead for setups; low volume, closes distance. Sharp lead for range; sets up hooks, 45% landing.
Cross Straight right in 1-2s; solid power, contributes to TKOs. Straight right in 1-2s; decent power, 1 KO.
Right Hook Frequent in flurries; close-range damage. Frequent in flurries; close-range threat.
Overhand Left Occasional; prefers hooks over loops. Occasional; power shot.
Uppercuts Used in clinch; dirty boxing tool. Used in clinch; dirty boxing.
Solitary Striker or Volume Puncher Solitary striker; low-output power (3.5 SLpM estimated), quality KOs over volume (absorbs 3.0 per min., 55% defense). Volume puncher; balanced (4.0 SLpM estimated), mixes levels (absorbs 3.5 per min., 55% defense).
Favorite Combinations 1-2-hook into knees; jab-body punch. 1-2-hook into knees; jab-uppercut-body kick.
Leg Kicks Moderate lows for disruption (20% to legs). Strong lows; 25% to legs for disruption.
Body Kicks Frequent roundhouses; targets ribs to weaken (25% output). Frequent roundhouses; midsection target (20% output).
Head Kicks Rare; head strikes 55%, power-focused. Rare; head strikes 55%.
Chains Kicks to Punches Basic; uses kicks to set punches, limited fluidity. Effective; flows into pressure.

Clinch

Aspect Felipe Franco Freddy Vidal
Physical Strength Good grip; holds vs. similar sizes but overpowered by taller. Good grip/explosiveness; overpowers in ties.
Technique Functional; knees/elbow slices control. Proficient; knees/elbows set takedowns.
Knees Sharp to body; accumulates in KOs. Sharp to body; transitions.
Elbows Cutting in close; offensive tool. Slicing; defensive.
Defense Against Knees/Elbows Average; 55% defense, vulnerable to volume. Solid; 65% defense.

Grappling

Aspect Felipe Franco Freddy Vidal
Wrestling from a Shot Average; 1.0 TD avg., 40% accuracy; reactive. Average; reactive (1.5 TD avg. estimated).
Wrestling in the Clinch Functional; trips from wall but reversed. Strong; trips from wall.
Takedown Defense Below average (55% estimated); sprawls ok but exposed. Functional (65% estimated); sprawls well.
Ability to Return to Feet Good; scrambles from guard. Good; scrambles.
Submissions Limited; 3 career subs (arm-triangle, RNC); 0.4 sub avg., GnP-focused. Limited; 0 subs, GnP-focused (0.0 sub avg.).
Defense/BJJ from the Bottom Average; retention but no elite sweeps. Average; retention, no sweeps.
Top Control Solid; GnP for TKOs. Solid; GnP for TKOs.
Ground-and-Pound Active; short punches finish (multiple TKOs). Active; short strikes finish.

Intangibles

Aspect Felipe Franco Freddy Vidal
Athleticism/General Physical Strength Solid; aggressive power at 30. High; durable at 30.
Cardio Average; early finishes mask potential fades. Average; untested in decisions.
Chin Durable; absorbs well in KOs. Durable; absorbs in KOs.
Recuperative Powers Strong; 8-0 streak. Strong; 3-0 streak.
Intelligence High; tactical aggression in regionals. High; tactical in regionals.

Official Pick

Felipe Franco via TKO in Round 1.

Reasoning: Franco’s undefeated power and finishing rate (100% finishes) overwhelm Vidal’s regional experience, landing heavy hooks to drop him early in a stand-up brawl. Vidal’s aggression meets Franco’s pressure, but his untested chin vs. power punchers leads to a quick stoppage on DWCS Week 5, Sep 9, 2025, earning Franco the UFC contract.


Cam Teague vs Lerryan Douglas

Fighter Comparison

Field Cam Teague Lerryan Douglas
Fighter Cam Teague (“Chaos”) Lerryan Douglas (“Gunslinger”)
Born February 13, 1998 April 27, 1995
Division Featherweight Featherweight
Height 5’10” 5’9”
Reach 69” 72”
Record 9-1-0 12-5-0
Association AMP Mixed Martial Arts (Mobile, AL) Bloodline Combat Sports (Huntington Beach, CA)
Stage of Career Rising prospect post-loss; 27 years old with 5 years pro experience, recent TKO loss to Kevin Vallejos on DWCS 2024 Week 6 (Sep 24, 2024); 9-1 record with 4 wins by KO/TKO, 3 by sub; Upcoming DWCS Week 5 bout vs. Lerryan Douglas on Sep 9, 2025, for UFC contract; Former college wrestler at UNC, transitioning to pro MMA with regional wins in Fury FC and OTH. Veteran on streak; 30 years old with 10 years pro experience, recent LFA Featherweight Championship win over Elijah Johns (Jan 25, 2025, LFA 200); 12-5 record with 6 KOs/TKOs, 3 subs; Upcoming DWCS Week 5 bout vs. Cam Teague on Sep 9, 2025, for UFC contract after LFA title; Brazilian-born, US-based with coaches Cub Swanson/Joel Diaz, former LFA interim champ.

Summary

  • Cam Teague: A wrestling-based fighter with finishing power (44% KO rate, 44% sub rate), Teague uses explosive takedowns and ground control for wins but showed striking vulnerabilities in DWCS loss (absorbed heavy volume before TKO). His regional run highlights athleticism and scrambling, but low striking accuracy (estimated 45%) and defense (55%) need improvement against veterans like Douglas; excels in chaotic scrambles but untested in decisions (11% decisions). At 27, his youth and wrestling make him a high-upside prospect for UFC featherweight, but he must evolve stand-up to secure contract; rebound win could fast-track rankings.
  • Lerryan Douglas: A well-rounded finisher with knockout power (50% KO rate) and grappling (25% sub rate), Douglas pressures with heavy hands and transitions but has vulnerabilities in takedown defense (55% estimated) against wrestlers (2 sub losses). His LFA title run showcases endurance and adaptability (4-fight streak), but absorbs high volume (3.5 per min.); excels in pocket wars and clinch, but untested vs. young wrestlers like Teague. At 30, his experience and finishing threat make him DWCS favorite; win earns UFC spot, positioning for top-15 featherweight run.

Striking

Aspect Cam Teague Lerryan Douglas
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Hand Speed Average; quick for setups but not elite, 45% accuracy estimated from regionals/DWCS. Above average; quick for power, 50% accuracy estimated from LFA.
Jab Basic lead for distance; uses to paw and set up wrestling, infrequent power. Sharp lead for range; sets up hooks/kicks, 45% landing.
Cross Straight right in 1-2s; solid but no KO wins, used for setups. Straight right in 1-2s; decent power, 2 KO wins.
Right Hook Occasional in flurries; close-range body work. Frequent in flurries; close-range threat.
Overhand Left Minimal; prefers level changes over looping shots. Occasional; power shot.
Uppercuts Rare; more knees in clinch. Used in clinch; dirty boxing.
Solitary Striker or Volume Puncher Solitary striker; low-output (3.5 SLpM estimated), emphasizing setups for grappling (absorbs 3.8 per min., 55% defense). Volume puncher; balanced (4.0 SLpM estimated), mixes levels (absorbs 3.5 per min., 55% defense).
Favorite Combinations 1-2 into clinch; jab-body kick to close distance. 1-2-hook into knees; jab-uppercut-body kick.
Leg Kicks Moderate low kicks for disruption (20% to legs). Strong lows; 25% to legs for disruption.
Body Kicks Frequent to wear down; targets midsection (25% output). Frequent roundhouses; midsection target (20% output).
Head Kicks Rare; head strikes 30%, cautious. Rare; head strikes 55%.
Chains Kicks to Punches Basic; uses kicks to bait takedowns, limited fluidity. Effective; flows into pressure.

Clinch

Aspect Cam Teague Lerryan Douglas
Physical Strength Solid grip from wrestling; holds against grapplers but tires vs. strikers. Good grip/explosiveness; overpowers in ties.
Technique Functional; knees and trips for transitions. Proficient; knees/elbows set takedowns.
Knees Sharp to body; wrestling influence in short knees. Sharp to body; transitions.
Elbows Sparing slices; defensive. Slicing; defensive.
Defense Against Knees/Elbows Average; good framing but vulnerable to pressure (exposed vs. Vallejos). Solid; 65% defense.

Grappling

Aspect Cam Teague Lerryan Douglas
Wrestling from a Shot Strong; chain wrestling from college base (2.5 TD avg. estimated), reactive shots. Average; reactive (1.5 TD avg. estimated).
Wrestling in the Clinch Solid; trips/sweeps from wall. Strong; trips from wall.
Takedown Defense Functional (65% estimated); sprawls well but stuffed in DWCS. Below average (55% estimated); sprawls ok but exposed (2 sub losses).
Ability to Return to Feet Excellent; explosive scrambles. Good; scrambles.
Submissions Proficient; 3 career subs (RNC, arm-triangle), brown belt transitions (0.8 sub avg.). Proficient; 3 career subs (RNC, arm-triangle), 0.5 sub avg.
Defense/BJJ from the Bottom Strong; sweeps/reversals from guard. Functional; retention but subbed twice.
Top Control Solid; maintains for subs/decisions. Solid; GnP for TKOs.
Ground-and-Pound Moderate; short strikes accumulate, 2 TKO wins from top. Active; short strikes finish (3 TKO wins).

Intangibles

Aspect Cam Teague Lerryan Douglas
Athleticism/General Physical Strength High; agile wrestler at 27. High; durable at 30.
Cardio Strong; decisions without fading but untested in 5-rounders. Strong; title fights without fading.
Chin Tested; TKO’d in DWCS but durable early. Durable; absorbs in KOs, 2 KO losses.
Recuperative Powers Resilient; rebounded from losses with wins. Resilient; 4-win streak post-losses.
Intelligence High; tactical wrestling, adapts mid-fight. High; tactical in LFA wars.

Official Pick

Lerryan Douglas via unanimous decision.

Reasoning: Douglas’s experience and finishing versatility (75% finish rate) edge out Teague’s youth in a grappling-heavy fight, where Douglas’s clinch work and striking volume (4.0 SLpM) outpoint Teague’s wrestling attempts. Teague’s explosiveness threatens early takedowns, but Douglas’s 55% TD defense and scrambling neutralize it, leading to a decision win on DWCS Week 5, Sep 9, 2025, earning Douglas the UFC contract.


Anthony Guarascio vs Steven Asplund

Fighter Comparison

Field Anthony Guarascio Steven Asplund
Fighter Anthony Guarascio (“The Daywalker”) Steven Asplund (“Concrete”)
Born April 12, 1996 (estimated) 1999 (estimated)
Division Heavyweight Heavyweight
Height 6’5” 6’5”
Reach 78” 80.5”
Record 4-0-0 (1 NC) 5-1-0
Association Independent (Tampa, FL, home garage) McCune’s Martial Arts (Prior Lake, MN)
Stage of Career Undefeated prospect; 29 years old with 3 years pro experience, CFFC Heavyweight Champion (won via 1st-round TKO vs. Bailey Schoenfelder at CFFC 141, April 2025); 4-0 record with 3 KOs/TKOs, no subs; Upcoming DWCS Week 5 main event vs. Steven Asplund on Sep 9, 2025, for UFC contract; Known for aggressive striking and mic skills, seeking direct UFC entry but competing on DWCS to prove worth. Rising prospect; 26 years old with 4 years pro experience, recent TKO win over Hammer Morton at LFA 200 (Jan 2025); 5-1 record with 4 KOs/TKOs, no subs; Upcoming DWCS Week 5 main event vs. Anthony Guarascio on Sep 9, 2025, for UFC contract; Minnesota-based heavyweight with size and power, rebounding from sole loss to Denzel Freeman.

Summary

  • Anthony Guarascio: A knockout artist (75% KO rate) with raw power and relentless pressure, Guarascio overwhelms with heavy right hands and body shots but has untested grappling (no pro ground time). His CFFC title win showcased devastating striking (all KOs under 72 seconds), but limited opposition and self-training raise durability questions; excels in stand-up brawls but vulnerable to wrestlers like Asplund (estimated 50% TD defense). At 29, his size and charisma make him a marketable heavyweight prospect, but he must survive grappling to secure UFC contract; favored for power but risky against technical foes.
  • Steven Asplund: A towering finisher (80% KO rate) with massive size and striking power, Asplund uses reach and resilience to dominate but has grappling holes (loss via sub to Freeman). His LFA run showcases heavy hands and durability, but average cardio (fades in decisions) and 60% TD defense expose weaknesses vs. wrestlers; excels in stand-up wars but must avoid ground against untested grapplers like Guarascio. At 26, his youth and physicality make him a DWCS threat; slight underdog but could upset with range control.

Striking

Aspect Anthony Guarascio Steven Asplund
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Hand Speed Above average; explosive for power, 55% accuracy estimated from CFFC. Average; power-focused, 50% accuracy estimated from LFA.
Jab Lead to body/head; sets up right hands, 45% landing. Long lead for range; sets up power shots, 40% landing.
Cross Straight right; primary KO weapon, dropped Schoenfelder. Straight right; solid power, contributes to TKOs (e.g., vs. Morton).
Right Hook Frequent in flurries; close-range damage. Frequent in close; accumulation damage.
Overhand Right Signature; massive power, finishes fights (e.g., vs. Reynolds). Occasional; heavy power shot.
Uppercuts Rare; prefers hooks in close. Used in clinch; dirty boxing.
Solitary Striker or Volume Puncher Solitary striker; low-output power (3.8 SLpM estimated), quality KOs over volume (absorbs 3.0 per min., 50% defense). Solitary striker; moderate output (3.7 SLpM estimated), quality KOs (absorbs 3.2 per min., 50% defense).
Favorite Combinations Jab-body jab-overhand right; 1-2 into knees. Jab-cross-hook; jab-body kick.
Leg Kicks Minimal; 15% to legs, focuses on punches. Moderate lows; 20% to legs for control.
Body Kicks Occasional roundhouses; 20% to midsection. Frequent; targets midsection (25% output).
Head Kicks Rare; head strikes 65%, power-focused. Rare; head strikes 55%.
Chains Kicks to Punches Basic; uses kicks to set punches, limited fluidity. Functional; uses kicks to maintain range.

Clinch

Aspect Anthony Guarascio Steven Asplund
Physical Strength Strong grip; holds position but untested vs. grapplers. Elite; leverages size to control.
Technique Functional; knees for control, limited exposure. Proficient; knees for damage, sets takedowns.
Knees Sharp to body; accumulates damage. Sharp to body/thighs; wears down foes.
Elbows Sparing slices; defensive. Slicing in close; offensive tool.
Defense Against Knees/Elbows Below average; 50% defense estimated, vulnerable to pressure. Solid; 60% defense, durable frame.

Grappling

Aspect Anthony Guarascio Steven Asplund
Wrestling from a Shot Unproven; 0 TD avg., no offensive shots recorded. Average; 1.0 TD avg., 40% accuracy; reactive.
Wrestling in the Clinch Minimal; no pro attempts shown. Functional; trips from wall.
Takedown Defense Below average (50% estimated); untested vs. wrestlers. Average (60% estimated); sprawls ok but subbed by Freeman.
Ability to Return to Feet Unknown; no pro ground time. Good; scrambles from bottom.
Submissions None; 0 career subs, striking-focused (0.0 sub avg.). None; 0 career subs, striking-focused (0.0 sub avg.).
Defense/BJJ from the Bottom Unproven; no pro exposure. Below average; subbed once, limited sweeps.
Top Control None recorded; no top position in fights. Solid when achieved; GnP for TKOs.
Ground-and-Pound None; all finishes standing. Active; heavy punches finish (3 TKO wins).

Intangibles

Aspect Anthony Guarascio Steven Asplund
Athleticism/General Physical Strength High; explosive striker at 29. Elite; massive frame at 26.
Cardio Unknown; all fights end in Round 1, untested in decisions. Average; fades in longer fights (e.g., Freeman loss).
Chin Durable; absorbs minimally in quick KOs. Durable; absorbs well, no KO losses.
Recuperative Powers Strong; 4-0 streak, overcame homelessness. Resilient; rebounded from loss with TKO.
Intelligence High; aggressive but tactical, vocal about UFC goals. High; tactical pressure, learns from setbacks.

Official Pick

Anthony Guarascio via TKO in Round 1.

Reasoning: Guarascio’s relentless pressure and knockout power (75% KO rate, all under 72 seconds) overwhelm Asplund’s reach advantage in a stand-up brawl, landing a massive right hand early. Asplund’s size and durability (80% KO rate) pose a threat, but his sub loss and average cardio falter against Guarascio’s aggression, leading to a quick stoppage on DWCS Week 5, Sep 9, 2025, earning Guarascio the UFC contract.


Results

Prediction Result
Anthony Guarascio via TKO in Round 1 Steven Asplund via KO/TKO in Round 1
Lerryan Douglas via decision Lerryan Douglas via KO/TKO in Round 1
Felipe Franco via TKO in Round 1 Freddy Vidal via Submission in Round 3
Samuel Sanches via submission in Round 2 Samuel Sanches via KO/TKO in Round 1
Shanelle Dyer via TKO in Round 2 Carol Foro via Decision
Copyright © 2025 MATLOCK'S FIGHT TALK. All rights reserved. | Visitor count: Hit Counter
Powered by Secret Juice