Speaking of knees, Kamaru Usman fights this weekend, July 18, 2026, in Oklahoma City—for some reason—and will also be taking on a younger former champion at a higher weight class.
Obviously, I’m drawing some parallels between Conor’s return and Usman’s, but there are some key differences. Despite Usman’s bad knees, he isn’t coming off a devastating injury to his tibia and fibula. He also fought last year. But he is 39 years old and is moving up once again to fight at middleweight.
Before his last fight, Usman took on Khamzat Chimaev on 10 days’ notice, replacing Paulo Costa. It was also his middleweight debut.
It was a strange fight. Kamaru clearly lost the first round, with all three judges scoring it 10-8. In the second, Chimaev barely tried for takedowns for most of the round and instead chose to have a light sparring match with Usman. He scored a takedown late and got some control time, but that still should have been an Usman round. Some judges didn’t see it that way.
The third was mostly the same story, except Chimaev attempted—and failed—on more takedowns. He did secure one and got more control time, but I still thought it was another clear round for Usman. Again, some judges didn’t see it that way.
What probably should have been a draw ended up being a majority decision for Chimaev in a strange three-round affair.
Personally, there isn’t much to take away from that fight other than Usman becoming another victim of Chimaev’s first-round domination. After watching Strickland’s recent fight with the Chechen, all I can say is that Chimaev is a fucking headcase.
After a two-year layoff, Usman returned against Joaquin Buckley, who I thought was a good comeback opponent. He also shares some similarities with DDP, although the comparisons are few and far between. Still, he is a better matchup than some of the other opponents he could have faced.
Despite Usman being around a +205 underdog and Buckley coming in at -263, I felt pretty comfortable taking Usman. The reason was simple: Buckley doesn’t seem to have any rhyme or reason to how he fights. He just throws bungalows across the Octagon until he hopefully lands something.
I figured that if Usman minded his p’s and q’s, he’d be able to beat him. Aside from things getting a little hairy in the final round, Usman didn’t have much trouble with Buckley at all.
I scored every round for Kamaru, as did a lot of media outlets. The judges gave Buckley the final round, which… fine. I’m cool with that.
Fast-forward a little over a year, and now Usman is facing another athletic bruiser—one who is arguably even more awkward. I also like to call DDP a Street Shark on rollerblades.
<img src="assets/streetshark.jpeg" alt="Dricus du Plessis compared to a Street Shark">
<figcaption>
DDP the Street Shark. <em>Street Sharks</em> was a cartoon from the 1990s.
</figcaption>
As mentioned earlier, Usman is now 39 years old, while DDP is 32. DDP is officially listed as only an inch taller, but I have a feeling he’s going to look noticeably bigger once they’re standing across from each other. He just seems to have a larger frame than Usman, although we probably won’t know for sure until the faceoff.
| Fighter Comparison | ||
| Category | Kamaru Usman | Dricus du Plessis |
| Nickname | The Nigerian Nightmare | Stillknocks |
| Record | 21–4 | 23–3 |
| Age | 39 | 32 |
| Height | 6’0” | 6’1” |
| Reach | 76” | 76” |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Nationality | Nigeria / USA | South Africa |
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| UFC Statistics | ||
| Statistic | Kamaru Usman | Dricus du Plessis |
| Significant strikes landed per minute | 4.16 | 5.18 |
| Significant-strike accuracy | 51% | 48% |
| Significant strikes absorbed per minute | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| Significant-strike defense | 55% | 52% |
| Average takedowns per 15 minutes | 2.79 | 2.22 |
| Takedown accuracy | 44% | 51% |
| Takedown defense | 89% | 34% |
| Average submissions per 15 minutes | 0.1 | 0.7 |
There’s no question that Usman is the superior wrestler. But assuming he’s going to have the same success against DDP that Chimaev did would be incredibly naive. As noted earlier, Usman was also dominated in the first round of that fight.
I felt confident picking Usman over Buckley. I don’t feel the same about his chances against DDP. Outside of both men being awkward and athletic, I think the Buckley comparison ends there.
DDP is relentless and can somehow sustain a high-volume pressure style over five rounds. I think Usman is going to have trouble in the striking exchanges. Even when he has success, DDP is uniquely good at taking one shot and answering with three or four strikes of his own. They look goofy and high-impact, even when half of them might not land. Optics.
I expect Usman to have some early success with his grappling and land a few good shots here and there. But as the rounds progress, the pace and sheer ridiculousness of DDP’s style will start wearing on him.
Spend too much time rewatching DDP’s fights and you can convince yourself otherwise, but we have to keep this practical. This is a fight DDP should win.
Kamaru Usman beating DDP would be very impressive, but it might also say more about how shit the UFC’s middleweight division is. In Usman’s prime, this could have been a much more likely outcome.
Give me DDP by third-round stoppage.
]]>Words cannot express how hilarious and satisfying this is. Conor McGregor appears to have blown out his knee with the very first flying switch kick he threw wildly out of range.
I noted during Buffer’s pre-fight formalities that both guys looked nervous. McGregor’s walkout also seemed unusually tame. Nonetheless, Max looked at the referee and told him that Conor was obviously injured, but he had to keep fighting anyway until Max mercifully allowed Conor to stand.
Conor could not stand at all on his right leg, and the referee called it off. Many will likely view this as disappointing or anticlimactic, but I feel exactly the opposite. This is a hilarious, comical, and deserved outcome.
I’m fine with being called a hater, but how can anyone truly feel bad, whether you like Conor or not? I thought of Chael Sonnen’s quote almost immediately after the contest:
```“You’re only going to be alive for so long, so if you can compete in a sport — don’t forget, sports are for kids — and if you’re lucky enough to do that as an adult, you’re just that: lucky.
I will leave face down and embarrassed, the only way you should leave sports.”
McGregor is also no longer the young, up-and-coming prospect doing extraordinary amounts of media. If anything, he appears to be trying to rehabilitate his image—and he has taken the religious-grifter route.
After a five-year hiatus and a devastating injury, we finally get to see what Conor McGregor looks like. Is he catching Max Holloway at a good time?
Or is Holloway catching McGregor at a good time?
Conor McGregor is 37. Max Holloway is 34.
The fight is being contested at 170 pounds. Holloway is slightly taller, listed at 5 feet 11 inches, while McGregor is listed at 5 feet 9 inches.
McGregor has a frame built for deceptive reach, especially when he was fighting at featherweight. He has a 74-inch reach compared with Holloway’s 69-inch reach.
The current odds show Holloway as a moderate favorite and McGregor as a slight underdog.
I rewatched McGregor and Holloway’s first meeting, along with McGregor’s most recent fights against Dustin Poirier.
Their first fight was genuinely good, and it was enjoyable to revisit. Holloway looked rigid, but he had a fairly sound game plan. He ultimately lost a decision, but there were small moments of success in that loss that would, in a way, foreshadow McGregor’s first loss to Poirier.
There are plenty of stylistic differences between Holloway and Poirier. Their fundamental stances are different, as were the stages of their careers when they faced McGregor.
What I liked about Holloway’s performance was the way he disrupted McGregor’s stance and rhythm with leg kicks. He eventually began finding McGregor with the jab and left hook.
What is particularly interesting is what happened when McGregor closed the distance and backed Holloway toward the cage. McGregor would throw his left hand and use his frame, but Holloway was able to read the attack and counter with his right hand.
Again, those moments did not win Holloway the fight. They do show, however, that even during McGregor’s rise—when his style was more refined—Holloway was able to find areas of success.
Eight years later, we saw something similar when McGregor fought Dustin Poirier, only with devastating consequences. Poirier’s success eventually led to McGregor losing by knockout. McGregor was the favorite in that fight as well.
A key difference between Poirier’s second fight with McGregor and their third—which remains McGregor’s most recent fight—was that McGregor looked much closer to the version of himself who was still on the rise.
He threw far more kicks, moved more fluidly on his feet and still showed the boxing-heavy approach that had become central to his game.
One thing has remained consistent throughout McGregor’s career: his best moments come when opponents believe they can hit him. He slides out of the way and counters with the straight left, occasionally following it with a sneaky right hand that can resemble a shovel punch.
What will McGregor’s pace and tempo look like after five years away, especially at 170 pounds? How hesitant will he be to throw kicks?
Holloway tends to build momentum as fights progress, while McGregor generally begins to fade in the second round.
I do not think there is any question that Holloway is past his physical prime, but he is still tough. Durable opponents have historically presented problems for McGregor—particularly fighters who can absorb his best attacks and continue moving forward.
Another major difference is that this fight is scheduled for five rounds.
I do feel some hesitation about picking Holloway, and that is probably because of his fight with Ilia Topuria.
A disciplined striker with knockout power stopped an incredibly mobile volume striker with elite cardio. I picked Topuria to win that fight, but I do not feel the same way about McGregor’s chances here.
What gives me more confidence in Holloway is his history against Dustin Poirier.
For what it is worth, McGregor physically looks good. He has kept a relatively quiet camp and has had a significant amount of time away from competition to recover from his fractured tibia and fibula, as well as a broken toe.
I have heard that he completed approximately nine solid months of consistent training, which is not insignificant. It is impossible to know exactly how consistent he has been—even if he did put a bed in the gym.
I think this fight could resemble McGregor’s fights with Nate Diaz: Holloway absorbs the early punches, McGregor begins to tire and Holloway takes over.
McGregor has produced good moments in his last few fights, but compared with the performances from his prime, the overall results have not been encouraging.
Holloway may also be past his prime, but his recent performances have still been very good. Add five years of uncertainty surrounding McGregor, along with his decision to compete at 170 rather than discipline himself enough to return to 155, and I think we will see a version of McGregor who has a few good moments before ultimately falling flat.
Give me Max Holloway by decision or a stoppage in the later rounds.
If McGregor wins, the significance of his comeback will be overinflated, and he will lean heavily into the result as he attempts to rehabilitate his public image.
That would still be an impressive athletic achievement. Returning after five years and defeating someone like Max Holloway would deserve credit. McGregor has also had ample time to recover, and no disrespect to Holloway, but nobody who understands MMA should be shocked if McGregor lands the knockout.
All of that said, I believe much of the MMA media, the broader media and a large portion of the fan base would quickly look past the civil court verdict against McGregor, in which a jury found him liable for assaulting Nikita Hand after she accused him of rape, as well as the numerous other controversies and allegations that have followed him.
That would feed directly into what I believe is his broader goal: rehabilitating his public image.
]]>UFC Freedom 250 takes place this Sunday at one of the most unusual venues in combat sports history: the White House lawn.
The event was announced nearly a year ago, and after months of political arguments, speculation, complaints, and terrible takes from every possible direction, it is finally here.
Personally, I find the political affiliation surrounding the UFC incredibly annoying and goofy. That will be especially true if Kid Rock becomes involved.
More than anything, though, the event leaves me wondering why the UFC has not taken more chances on large or unconventional venues in the past.
Conor McGregor fighting at Croke Park was discussed for years, but Dana White did not want to deal with the weather, insects, and other logistical risks. AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys, has also been suggested. White has said he believes the UFC could sell it out, but he prefers the atmosphere of indoor arenas.
At the same time, the UFC was willing to hold an event at the Sphere in Las Vegas. That show was impressive, even if the experience was also a little strange.
The promotion has never held an event in Hawaii, either. That is remarkable for a state that produced fighters such as BJ Penn and Max Holloway.
From a production standpoint, however, I appreciate what the UFC is attempting with Freedom 250. Staging an MMA event on the White House lawn is an extraordinary logistical undertaking, and I am genuinely curious to see how the presentation looks.
I am less excited about the national anthem, ceremonies, and whatever other pomp surrounds the fights. Boxing frequently turns major events into exhausting spectacles, with elaborate entrances and ceremonies delaying the main event for what feels like hours.
The UFC was originally built around the idea that it would not make the same mistakes as boxing, so it will be interesting to see how the company balances the historic setting with the actual fights.
Whatever happens, Freedom 250 will bring enormous exposure to the UFC. It will also bring opinions from people who rarely, if ever, watch MMA.
That is the inevitable result of a major spectacle. New viewers arrive, attention increases, and suddenly everyone has a fully formed opinion about a sport they discovered five minutes ago.
Regular MMA fans already produce enough questionable analysis, so prepare yourselves.
New viewers may also discover that MMA can look remarkably homoerotic at times. That is simply part of the experience.
With all the ceremony and political discussion out of the way, let us move to the subject that has received surprisingly little attention: the fights.
<p>
The main event features Ilia Topuria against Justin Gaethje in what is being
promoted as a lightweight title unification bout.
</p>
<p>
The title situation does not make much sense. If the UFC is going to
distribute championships as freely as it often does, Topuria should probably
also possess the BMF title, while Gaethje should be attempting to unify the
lightweight championship and regain the BMF belt at the same time.
</p>
<p>
Topuria enters as a substantial favorite, which is understandable. He has
looked exceptional and is the considerably younger fighter. Topuria is 29
years old, while Gaethje is 37.
</p>
<p>
Gaethje is taller at 5 feet 11 inches compared with Topuria at 5 feet 7
inches, but his reach advantage is only one inch.
</p>
<p>My pick is Topuria.</p>
<p>
One of the most important technical elements will be how Topuria handles
Gaethje's single-collar tie. Gaethje uses it constantly to break his
opponent's posture before throwing heavy punches at close range.
</p>
<p>
Leg kicks will also be significant. Gaethje often throws them from unusually
close distances, which could be interesting against Topuria's more
conventional boxing stance.
</p>
<p>
Topuria is generally effective at shifting his weight between his lead and
rear legs, but Gaethje's timing and willingness to exchange could still
create problems.
</p>
<p>
Gaethje is extremely comfortable in chaotic close-range exchanges. He has
even thrown wild head kicks from the clinch. That particular technique may
not determine this fight, but it illustrates how unpredictable he can be
when the distance collapses.
</p>
<p>
Topuria does a good job slipping punches and protecting himself behind his
shoulder. However, he can be hit on his right side, particularly by hooks
and kicks that travel around his shoulder rather than directly through his
guard.
</p>
<p>
It does not happen constantly, but it happens often enough to be worth
watching.
</p>
<p>
Conditioning may also become a major factor. This fight could be contested
at a high pace and become ugly very quickly.
</p>
<p>
The outdoor setting adds another variable. The canvas could become slippery,
particularly with the enormous number of sponsor logos usually printed
across it.
</p>
<p>
By the time the main event begins, the surface may also be covered with
sweat, blood, and water from the previous fights. It will be interesting to
see whether the UFC replaces or cleans the canvas before the main event.
</p>
<p>
There has also been discussion about the pressure associated with competing
on this card. Gaethje may feel a particular obligation to perform for the
American crowd and the dignitaries in attendance, especially with a
championship at stake.
</p>
<p>
Gaethje has historically thrived under pressure, though, and he appears to
enjoy being the underdog. That psychological element may work in his favor.
</p>
<p>
Topuria has reportedly predicted a first-round knockout. I believe he wins,
but I expect the finish to come in the second or third round. I am accounting
for the outdoor conditions and the possibility of a more cautious opening
than expected.
</p>
<p>
This is an excellent main event, even though I still believe Arman Tsarukyan
should be occupying this position.
</p>
<p>
<strong>
Prediction: Ilia Topuria by knockout in Round 2 or Round 3.
</strong>
</p>
<p>
In the co-main event, Alex "Poatan" Pereira moves to heavyweight to face
Ciryl Gane for the interim heavyweight championship.
</p>
<p>
The betting odds are close, and it will be worth monitoring how the line
moves as the fight approaches.
</p>
<p>
Gane is two years younger and holds a slight reach advantage, measuring 81
inches compared with Pereira's 79. Gane is also the natural heavyweight,
although the two fighters have relatively similar professional records.
</p>
<p>
Gane's game is built around mobility. He uses extensive lateral movement,
attacks the body with kicks, and generally manages distance well.
</p>
<p>
However, he sometimes retreats in straight lines and frequently carries his
hands low.
</p>
<p>
Pereira will likely attempt to take away Gane's space, cut off the cage, and
force him behind the outer boundary line. From there, Pereira can attack as
Gane circles away or catch him during exchanges when the pressure begins to
build.
</p>
<p>
Pereira is fully capable of scoring a knockout, but I am leaning toward Gane.
</p>
<p>
Gane is the more dynamic overall fighter, and that versatility matters at
heavyweight. I believe it will take more than one clean punch to remove him
from the fight.
</p>
<p>
Over five rounds, Gane may gradually establish his rhythm and accumulate
momentum.
</p>
<p>
I am also interested in whether Gane attempts any takedowns. The clinch
exchanges and positions against the cage could be pivotal.
</p>
<p>
Whichever fighter lands the cleaner shots as they separate may gain a major
advantage.
</p>
<p>
A decision victory for Gane is entirely possible, but in the spirit of
America and freedom, let us hope the fight ends inside the distance.
</p>
<p>
I expect Gane to accumulate damage and eventually land something devastating
from range in the third round. Still, this is heavyweight MMA, so no result
should be considered surprising.
</p>
<p>
This may be the fight I am anticipating most, partly because Pereira's
walkout is one of the best in combat sports. Hearing Sepultura played at the
White House would be undeniably cold.
</p>
<p>
<strong>
Prediction: Ciryl Gane by knockout or technical knockout in Round 3.
</strong>
</p>
<p>
Sean O'Malley enters his fight against Aiemann Zahabi as a substantial
favorite.
</p>
<p>
The size of the betting line initially seems surprising because Zahabi is a
durable and intelligent fighter. It is not impossible to imagine him turning
the contest into an ugly, competitive fight and winning a decision.
</p>
<p>
There is also the completely scientific concern that O'Malley could slip on
the outdoor canvas and injure one of his famously delicate ankles.
</p>
<p>
The odds become more understandable after examining the matchup. O'Malley has
the greater name recognition and ranking, and he is younger, taller, and
longer.
</p>
<p>
Statistically, Zahabi tends to absorb roughly one strike for every strike he
lands. O'Malley, by comparison, is much better at landing without remaining
in position for the immediate return.
</p>
<p>
Zahabi and his brother, Firas, are capable of constructing an effective game
plan, so I would not completely dismiss his chances. He may be able to
disrupt O'Malley's rhythm and make the fight uncomfortable.
</p>
<p>
Ultimately, however, I expect O'Malley's length, movement, and defensive
awareness to carry him to a decision victory.
</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Sean O'Malley by decision.</strong></p>
<p>
Donald Trump's favorite fighter, Derrick Lewis, faces Josh Hokit, who may
replace Lewis as Trump's favorite fighter by the end of Sunday night.
</p>
<p>
Lewis is 41 years old, while Hokit is 28. Hokit is reportedly only a few
inches shorter, but he gives up approximately five inches in reach.
</p>
<p>Despite that disadvantage, Hokit enters as the favorite.</p>
<p>
There is always a reasonable argument for betting on Lewis by knockout. He
is one of the most powerful fighters in UFC history, owns an enormous number
of knockout victories, and competes in a division where one punch can erase
everything that happened beforehand.
</p>
<p>
Hokit also absorbed plenty of punches in his fight with Curtis Blaydes, so
Lewis will have opportunities.
</p>
<p>
However, this matchup reminds me of how easily Daniel Cormier was able to
take Lewis down. Hokit does not possess the same credentials as Cormier, but
the comparison is relevant enough to illustrate the potential problem.
</p>
<p>
Lewis may land a few heavy punches or kicks, but I expect Hokit to attack the
legs, drag him to the canvas, and control the fight from there.
</p>
<p>
Once the fight reaches the ground, Hokit should be able to produce damage
and find a submission. The only question is whether it comes through an arm
triangle or a rear-naked choke.
</p>
<p>
The rear-naked choke may sound a little too homoerotic for all the new
viewers, but an arm triangle looks like an awkward hug, so there is no
perfect solution.
</p>
<p>I will go with the traditional option.</p>
<p>
<strong>
Prediction: Josh Hokit by rear-naked choke in Round 1.
</strong>
</p>
<p>
Michael Chandler wants to be Donald Trump's favorite fighter, but he is not.
He also wants to fight Conor McGregor, but apparently that is not happening
either.
</p>
<p>
Instead, Chandler faces Mauricio Ruffy, who is at least vaguely reminiscent
of McGregor.
</p>
<p>
Ruffy is a major favorite, and it is easy to understand why. Chandler is 40
years old, while Ruffy is 29. Ruffy is also taller and owns a meaningful
reach advantage.
</p>
<p>
As long as Ruffy does not spend three rounds being controlled by Chandler's
wrestling—and does not get kicked directly in the face—I have difficulty
seeing him lose.
</p>
<p>
Ruffy has reportedly built a gym and training camp around himself rather
than operating as a conventional member of the Fighting Nerds team.
</p>
<p>
I like that approach. It resembles the individualized camps once constructed
around major boxing stars such as Muhammad Ali and George Foreman.
</p>
<p>
There are faint shades of McGregor against Chad Mendes in this matchup,
although the similarities begin to disappear as soon as you examine them
closely.
</p>
<p>
Chandler should have moments early, especially if he commits to his wrestling
and refuses to engage recklessly.
</p>
<p>
History suggests that he will eventually abandon the safest strategy and
enter a chaotic exchange.
</p>
<p>
Unless Chandler has substantially increased his dosage of American-made
freedom supplements, I expect Ruffy to finish him.
</p>
<p>
<strong>
Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy by technical knockout in Round 2.
</strong>
</p>
<p>
The card also includes another candidate for Donald Trump's favorite
fighter: Bo Nickal.
</p>
<p>
Nickal faces Kyle Daukaus in a matchup between two southpaws. The last time
Nickal fought a southpaw, Reinier de Ridder repeatedly found him with strikes
and eventually finished him.
</p>
<p>That experience is relevant here.</p>
<p>
Nickal enters as a moderate favorite. His record stands at 8-1, while
Daukaus brings considerably more experience with a 17-4 record and is
beginning his second UFC stint.
</p>
<p>
Daukaus is a few inches taller, although their reach is identical. Nickal is
three years younger at 30.
</p>
<p>I like Daukaus more than the betting odds suggest.</p>
<p>
The most likely outcome is still Nickal controlling the fight through
takedowns, mat returns, and superior positioning before winning a decision.
</p>
<p>
He is the more accomplished athlete and possesses vastly superior wrestling
credentials.
</p>
<p>
Nickal's striking has improved, but he still needs experience. He looked
solid against Rodolfo Vieira, although Vieira offered almost nothing
offensively in that fight.
</p>
<p>He moved with the urgency of a parked car.</p>
<p>
Daukaus has the tools to make this contest ugly. He can occupy space,
pressure forward, and land combinations. He will probably absorb punches in
return, but he may be durable enough to take them.
</p>
<p>
Nickal's defensive striking and footwork are not yet developed enough to
completely neutralize Daukaus. When exchanges become uncomfortable, Nickal
will almost certainly search for takedowns.
</p>
<p>
Daukaus may not possess elite takedown defense, and he will probably lose
certain scrambling positions. However, he is a legitimate submission threat.
</p>
<p>
Pressure could also influence Nickal's decision-making. He will not want to
look bad in front of his powerful golfing friend.
</p>
<p>
That may encourage him to attempt risky techniques that do not serve his
best interests, much as he did against de Ridder.
</p>
<p>
The correct strategy for Nickal is straightforward: wrestle constantly,
establish dominant positions, produce damage, and continue wrestling.
</p>
<p>
This is one of the best and most logical matchups on the card. Picking the
underdog may not be the intelligent choice, but I am willing to have some
fun.
</p>
<p>
I believe Daukaus can hurt Nickal on the feet, force a desperate wrestling
exchange, and attack his neck during the transition.
</p>
<p>
<strong>
Prediction: Kyle Daukaus by submission in Round 2.
</strong>
</p>
<p>
The opening fight of the White House card features Diego Lopes against Steve
Garcia.
</p>
<p>
It is easy to understand why the UFC selected this matchup to begin the
event. Conceptually, it should produce immediate fireworks.
</p>
<p>
Garcia is only a slight underdog. He is three years older, slightly taller,
and appears to hold a reach advantage of approximately two and a half inches.
</p>
<p>
Garcia owns a 19-5 record, while Lopes enters at 27-8.
</p>
<p>
The southpaw-versus-orthodox dynamic also makes the fight interesting, with
Garcia operating from the southpaw stance.
</p>
<p>
Garcia is unusually built for a featherweight. His limbs look exceptionally
long, and his style is awkward in an effective way.
</p>
<p>
He uses constant movement and feints, maintains an active lead hand, and
frequently attacks with front kicks.
</p>
<p>
I am a fan of his approach. His volume and movement alone could create
problems for Lopes.
</p>
<p>
However, Lopes' losses have generally come against elite competition. His
difficulty cutting off the cage is well established, but that weakness may
be less important against Garcia, who is more willing to engage.
</p>
<p>
Garcia manages long range effectively, but he can be caught by counters.
</p>
<p>
His striking differential is remarkable, averaging 5.39 significant strikes
landed per minute while absorbing only 2.12.
</p>
<p>
Those numbers should be viewed in the context of his shorter average fight
time and the level of opposition he has faced, but they remain impressive.
</p>
<p>
Lopes' durability, experience, and power should be major factors. He is also
the better grappler on paper, although Garcia's unusual style could make the
grappling exchanges less predictable than expected.
</p>
<p>
I believe the fight reaches the scorecards, with damage serving as the
deciding factor in Lopes' favor.
</p>
<p>
Regardless of the result, this is an excellent matchup and an ideal way to
start the event.
</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Diego Lopes by decision.</strong></p>
<p>UFC Freedom 250 is unquestionably a historic event.</p>
<p>
Whether the political theater enhances or distracts from the fights remains
to be seen, but the White House setting guarantees that the show will attract
an enormous audience.
</p>
<p>
It will bring longtime fans, first-time viewers, dignitaries, celebrities,
political arguments, bad analysis, and possibly Kid Rock together for one
strange night of cage fighting.
</p>
<p>
Once it is over, everyone can finally stop complaining about it and begin
preparing for the next unavoidable spectacle: the return of Conor McGregor.
</p>
<p>Yay.</p>
```
]]>
Whenever fights with mass appeal come along, they bring in a wave of people who maybe never watched fights, used to watch fights but fell off for whatever reason, or are just casual fans.
Personally, I think the MMA community uses the term “casual fan” far too much. There are a lot of fight fans who watch a ton of fights and just have consistently terrible takes. Sometimes those fans lean more toward the betting angle of the fights, but sometimes they don’t.
I think of a casual fan as someone who tunes in for the big fights with a recognizable name. In the UFC in 2026, that can be more difficult to identify because there are fewer fighters with mass appeal like Chuck Liddell, Tito Ortiz, Anderson Silva, Chael Sonnen, GSP, Brock Lesnar, Forrest Griffin, Stephan Bonnar, Conor McGregor, and yes, Ronda Rousey. COVID can also get a special shout-out.
What I’m getting at is this: when these waves of new viewers tune in for something big, you better brace yourself for some really low-IQ takes. It happens every single time, and Rousey vs. Carano is no different.
I think a lot of people will understand this, but I know for a fact many of you don’t: there are tons of people who just don’t really know anything about the UFC.
It has gotten better over time, but there are still people who need clarity when someone says “the UFC.”
“Oh, is that the fighting thing? They fight in a cage?”
A lot of people don’t know who Dana White is, but they might know Ronda Rousey. They may have seen some highlights here and there, but especially today, social media can be so specifically curated that you can craft exactly what you want to watch and have fed to you all the time. So it doesn’t surprise me at all if someone doesn’t know jack shit about this sport.
I also think Dana White being so heavily involved with Trump piques some curiosity about who he is and what the UFC is for someone who literally never paid any attention to this sport.
What is unique about Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano is that there is an audience that is familiar with Ronda Rousey. She casts a very wide net of fans, many of whom were loyal to her.
The hardcores like me are going to watch her fight because we watch every fucking fight, and a Netflix card is interesting. Ronda has a fan base that tuned in to watch her, and after she retired, they stopped watching. So we are going to get those people back, and they are probably going to watch because it’s on fucking Netflix.
Had this been a PPV, I don’t think it would’ve done well. Maybe it would have done decent numbers for a PPV in 2026, but nowhere near the numbers they got by showing it on Netflix.
Let’s also keep in mind that many people who are even kind of familiar with Ronda Rousey may have only ever watched fights at a sports bar while they were inebriated, with a friend who watched fights, or with an ex-significant other. They never really got familiar with the UFC product during that time.
Besides, if you tuned into a Ronda Rousey fight, it only lasted so long. Rarely did her fights go past round one.
I’d also like to point out that a majority of people tuned in for Rousey vs. Holm and Rousey vs. Nunes. They heard about this judoka bad bitch mowing through everyone, and then she got knocked out. Twice in a row.
I should also mention that maybe there are some fans who only know Ronda from WWE, but that cannot be too significant a number.
As far as Gina Carano, enough time has passed that a lot of people do not really know who Gina Carano is. Not the fighting Gina Carano, anyway.
And those who did? Come on, guys. It was a flash in the pan. It only lasted a couple of years, if that, but it happened during a time when MMA was gaining tons of momentum: 2008 and 2009.
The rest know her from The Mandalorian or Deadpool. But she is attractive, so that makes up for a lot. It was her appeal in 2008, and it is still the appeal now.
So Netflix, Ronda Rousey, Gina Carano, and yes, even Jake Paul, open the floodgates for fair-weather fans, casual fans, and new viewers. A majority of them think, or thought, they were watching the UFC.
They do not have product familiarity because they just don’t watch. I know, shocking for some of you, but it is a fact. I can tell you this with 100% certainty.
It doesn’t matter that Bruce Buffer isn’t announcing, that Joe Rogan isn’t there, or that there is a black canvas or a WWE-style LCD screen tunnel. A lot more people who don’t watch are simply more familiar with professional wrestling than MMA. Add a gimmicky-looking LCD walkout entrance to the mix, and even subconsciously, it feels a bit funky.
Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano lasts 17 seconds. Ronda doesn’t even throw Gina to the canvas. She double-legs her, gets the armbar, and it’s done.
Guess who isn’t surprised? People like you and me.
The people who are surprised, or maybe even skeptical, are not people like you and me. The hardcore and regular MMA fans are not surprised by this. Everyone else? Probably skeptical, confused, and maybe they just think it’s outright fake and move on.
You know what else I didn’t stop to consider? Did people even know why these two were fighting?
Sure, there were countdown videos and stuff, but the broadcast didn’t do the greatest job of explaining it. Even then, it really doesn’t make much sense. They both were gone for a long time, and now they want to fight each other. A fight that could’ve been but never was, and now here it is?
Well, I suppose that kind of makes sense.
Had MVP and Netflix told the story of Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano more accurately, I don't think anyone would have been surprised by the outcome. This is a classic case of Y'all Must Have Forgot.
What I find funny is the hardcore fans and media saying “I told you so” when the fight ended quickly and early. It’s like, who are you flexing to? Anyone who follows you already knew this.
I left some room for pageantry. Maybe Ronda would want to prove something about her stand-up. Maybe she would make it a touch more dramatic. Maybe.
But since she didn’t, and since it was strictly business, it shows exactly why this fight was not fixed. That is exactly how it would go down every time if Ronda executed a no-bullshit approach to the fight.
A fixed fight is predetermined. It is secretly arranged. Someone agrees to something. Some say rigged, but these two were not under any obligation to the promotion. No one was forced into or pigeonholed into taking this fight. That was kind of the whole thing about this event. MVP was supposedly treating fighters fairly.
Ronda Rousey was highly favored, and the outcome was highly predictable.
If this fight had been rehearsed, it would have looked ridiculous. You’ve seen these two act. It does not look good, and that is with a script and months, if not years, of production.
If you think this fight was fixed, I actually understand the circumstances that would lead you to such a conclusion. But it would not look that clean.
Earlier, I asked why these two were fighting. I know why.
Sure, part of it is that it was a fight people did talk about. When Ronda was coming up, and even at her peak, a Ronda vs. Gina fight was mentioned from time to time.
It strikes me as strange that some who claim to be tenured fans say it wasn’t. It was.
Now, the hype and anticipation around it were basically non-existent because Gina would never commit. Sometimes you’d hear about talks with Gina and Dana, but it never really culminated in anything.
It was also the general consensus, again among fans like me and those who actively watched, that Rousey would decimate Gina Carano. Gina was doing movie shit. She used the attention from fighting to move on to other things. There was no reason to go backward.
We wanted to see Rousey vs. Cyborg. Even Gina fought Cyborg. But that’s the fight we wanted and the one that was being talked about.
Why this fight took place, and why it made sense for both Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano, is what I call image laundering.
It is the primary reason. Sure, Ronda fights her hero, Gina loses weight and gets healthy, and it’s a fight they both wanted. All of that is cute and true. But in my opinion, it is image laundering first, money second, and everything else is not even close.
It is what I thought before, and it is what I think now.
Ronda Rousey’s career did not end the way she wanted it to, and her relationship with the media and fans tanked because of how she handled her losses. Anyone who was around for the buildup to Ronda vs. Amanda Nunes remembers this, too.
So Ronda comes back against someone with a name, a pioneer in Gina Carano, and gets to leave on a win. She can remind everyone who she is, or who she thinks she is, at the very least.
She gets one last taste of fame, and the fans do as well. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, all that shit.
Now she is arguably in a better spot to do something else, whether it’s another fight, promoting, making comic books, or whatever else. Or she can go back to retirement. Either way, she is now in a better position than she was before.
Gina Carano is the exact same thing.
I’m not going to get into the politics of what Gina Carano said that got her canceled. For someone who wants to tell stories, as she puts it, she really went about trying to make a point or statement in the dumbest way possible by essentially retweeting or posting someone else’s viewpoint that she agreed with.
Then later on, she used Star Wars memes or pictures to further drive her viewpoint and opinion on hot-button social and political topics at the time.
And it’s like, why?
Is there no one to advise you or have your best interest in mind? Is there not a more creative, better, smarter, more lucrative approach to saying what you want to say, Gina? Instead of shitposting?
It’s really quite remarkable.
So she comes back after a settlement with Disney, and essentially, what I think this is about is vindication.
“Look, I may have been beaten down by the system, but I am not broken. I am stronger than I’ve ever been. I stand by what I said and who I am. To prove that, I’ll get into the cage with one of the all-time greatest to ever do it in women’s MMA, stand before the media, and stake my claim. And by the way, if anyone is listening, I’d really like to act again or maybe even direct. Wink wink, Netflix. Wink wink.” - Not a real Gina Carano quote but what I think she tells herself in her mind 😂
So that’s what they did.
Gina Carano was not going to win this fight unless Ronda Rousey made a mistake by trying to compensate for something or putting on too much theatrics.
Gina Carano spent a very long time just getting into shape. Fighters who actively fight and are in shape will tell you there is a difference between being in shape and being in fight shape. There is no way Gina was in fight shape.
I think Gina came in with a game plan. I think she trained for all the scenarios. She was at a great camp. I truly believe she did wake up at 3 a.m. and think of all the ways the fight could go, and prepared for those things.
But so did everyone else who fought Ronda. And those were active fighters.
A couple of last things now that this event is over: I enjoyed the card overall. It reminded me of a Strikeforce/Bellator hybrid. The production was good as far as the in-arena look.
I respect Mauro Ranallo and what he does, but ever since he started doing Jake Paul events from the beginning, I just haven’t been a huge fan of his style these days.
What would you call it? Figures of speech? Hyperbole? Idiomatic comparisons?
Like, “He tapped faster than a credit card” or “folded like a lawn chair.”
I get why he uses them, and I admire the creativity, but the older he gets, the dumber they sound. And it is just constant.
I know that is a personal opinion, and maybe it works for some people and for the masses, but I think I strive for a much more minimal and subdued approach to commentary these days. I want dead air from the commentary booth more often so that void can be filled with the sound of the crowd, and even more so, the sound of feet on the canvas, the punches, and the cage itself.
I love a two-man booth, but Mauro can really count for two people.
The pacing sucked, so we got too much Ariel Helwani. Fighters are so terrible at talking anyway that the last thing I want is more of that post-fight. Too much Ariel everywhere.
If he’s going to be involved, I wish it were more in the storytelling aspect leading up to a fight because Netflix-MVP dropped the ball on that. Their promo packages and explanations of who these fighters are and what they’ve done were terrible.
Granted, they’re not going to get clearance to use any UFC-owned media, but still. Tell a better story, especially with the amount of time between fights.
I enjoyed the prelims. Everyone is right about squash matches, but nobody talked about David Mgoyan vs. Albert Morales, which I thought was really good matchmaking. It was a challenging fight for David, but not one he couldn’t win. It was a tough but passable test for a prospect.
That should’ve been talked about like Jason Jackson, the Phumi Adriano fight, or Namo and Jake.
Fazil looked good. Parnasse was fun. You all know the talking points of this card at this stage.
I loved the black canvas. Nate’s blood looked awesome, almost cartoonish, on the black canvas.
I’m not a fan of calling it the hexagon. Just call it a cage.
I get why they do it, but it’s too diet-UFC sounding for me. I don’t mind the hexagon itself because if you use an octagon, then broadcasters are going to say “octagon,” and then they’ll have to pay the UFC for infringing on the trademark.
I guess I’m looking for a promotion that does better storytelling and finds more unique, creative ways to tell stories. Less bells and whistles. Less fabricated beef and all that garbage.
Make it look cool and keep it minimal.
They can do way more with a more focused and impactful approach because they won’t put on as many events as the UFC.
And less Jake Paul, too. You let him talk too much, and he sounds stupid as fuck.
Anyways, decent overall. Looking forward to more.
]]>Unusual but very exciting card. I did pretty poorly on my picks—going 3/5 on the main card and 2/7 on the prelims. To be fair, the fights I actually tape-studied, I got right. The rest I just tailed. I’m going to jump all over the place, so strap in.
Jiri made one of the lowest-IQ decisions I’ve ever seen in MMA. He started off doing okay, but Carlos was already picking him apart. Then Carlos tears his ACL or something and can barely stand. Jiri starts attacking the other leg, which was smart, but then… decides, “You know what, I’m going to brawl with this guy.” Of course, he stands right in front of a check left hook and gets knocked out.
The Gastelum outcome was not what I expected. I know people hate on Kelvin, and I know Luque is underrated—even with the brain injury that people keep bringing up—but I still felt like Gastelum should’ve blasted Luque into another universe. Maybe actually doing tape study would’ve swayed me otherwise, but I have a bit of a delusional outlook on Gastelum. Pyfer did a number on Kelvin, and his chin looks like it might be gone now. He really had a ton of potential and was one of my favorite fighters to come out of TUF.
A lot of fans—and even the UFC broadcast booth—took issue with the scoring of Mederos vs. Padilla. Initially, it was announced as a majority decision win for Padilla, but later in the broadcast it was corrected to a draw. A lot of people were upset that a judge could even score it for Mederos.
On my personal scorecard (which you can see below), I had two rounds for Mederos, and with the point deduction, that made it a draw. If you actually watched the fight without listening to Joe Rogan and DC talking over it, it’s pretty clear why a draw is a reasonable outcome. Padilla had a lot of output, but most of it was leg kicks and jabs that didn’t do much damage. When they exchanged in the pocket, Mederos held his own and landed the better shots.
Also, if you use a real-time scoring approach like I do, you’re less likely to get caught up in narratives about how a round “felt.” Just because Padilla may have finished strong doesn’t mean he won the round—there were still 4:50 of action that mattered. I have no issue with someone scoring it for Padilla or Mederos. The rounds were much closer than Rogan and DC made them seem, especially in hindsight. They made it sound like Mederos had no business being competitive, which just wasn’t the case.
Suarez getting a submission victory is huge. She had a really tough first round—got dropped but survived.
Gamrot looked exceptional. He was on another level.
Randy Brown completely gassed after Holland’s submission attempt. Credit to him for surviving, but he was done. Holland looked good, but he should’ve finished Brown, who had nothing to offer offensively or defensively at that point. Brown just hugged him to survive, and Holland spent more time talking than working to break free. Ridiculous.
Pico had a rocky first round but managed to outclass and outwork Pitbull in the second and third. I don’t come away thinking much differently about Pico. He was close to getting knocked out—it was there. If Pitbull had any real killer instinct, he could’ve won. That said, Pico showed composure and stuck to his game plan. Still, Pico should’ve gotten the finish—that would’ve been a big statement.
There’s too much to say about Hokit vs. Blaydes. People are right—it was one of the best heavyweight fights in a long time. Hokit showed great conditioning and durability, but I do have concerns. Blaydes isn’t much of a puncher. He has some power, but for his size, you’d expect more knockouts. Hokit was getting rocked at times, and against a true power puncher, that could’ve been a problem. That said, his conditioning will take him far—especially if he’s fighting someone like Derrick Lewis, who tends to gas out.
I was very impressed by Costa. I was not impressed by Reyes or Walker.
The most important fight of the night for me: Cub Swanson. He wins in spectacular fashion against Nate Landwehr. I was a bit surprised—Landwehr is tough and usually survives early adversity, but he was getting dominated. I think he got dropped multiple times. Herb Dean mercifully stopped it, and Landwehr was still trying to wrestle him.
They put together a solid video package for Cub—by UFC standards, anyway. Honestly, I think that might be the best retirement win of all time. Better than Chiesa’s, and the fight itself was better too.
Thank you, Cub Swanson.
Pick: Prado
Round 1:
Prado opened with very effective striking—body hooks, body kicks, and clean hooks to the head. Radtke was pushed back to the fence but did well to get the fight to the ground. Clear advantage once it hit the mat. He took the back, controlled most of the round, and landed some damage late.
Score: 10-9 Radtke
Round 2:
Prado looked noticeably slower and a bit fatigued. He ate a jab and was taken down again, with Radtke ending up on his back. Prado recovered into guard and landed a heavy elbow from the top. Radtke returned fire with an elbow from bottom that opened a bad cut—Prado was bleeding heavily. I still scored this 10-9 Prado, though most will likely give it to Radtke.
Round 3:
Prado was deducted a point for an eyepoke. He started strong, defending multiple takedowns, but then jumped for a guillotine—poor decision. It was close, but Radtke escaped and ended up on top. You could argue the round for Prado, but it likely doesn’t matter.
Result: Radtke via Decision
Round 1:
Missed the beginning. Gastelum had control with a front headlock early. Luque then dropped him with a right hook and locked in a D’Arce choke. Gastelum tapped. Very surprising outcome.
Result: Luque via Submission
Pick: Mederos
Round 1:
Very clean round for Padilla—sharp Muay Thai, strong pressure, and technical striking. He took an elbow that caused a cut, but otherwise dominated.
Score: 10-9 Padilla
Round 2:
Padilla maintained high activity, but Mederos came alive—more volume and better exchanges.
Score: 10-9 Mederos
Round 3:
Same pressure from Padilla, but I thought Mederos edged the exchanges again. I personally had it a draw at 28-28.
Official Result: Padilla via Majority Decision (29-27, 29-27, 28-28)
Correction: Fight ruled a Draw
Pick: Suarez
Round 1:
Godinez dropped Suarez early. Suarez recovered, secured a takedown, and controlled. Many scored it for Godinez based on damage, but I gave it to Suarez for combined control and damage.
Score: 10-9 Suarez
Round 2:
Suarez got it to the ground, took the back, and finished with a rear-naked choke.
Result: Suarez via Submission (Round 2)
Pick: Ribovics
Round 1:
Competitive striking early, but Gamrot secured a takedown and controlled the remainder.
Score: 10-9 Gamrot
Round 2:
Another takedown from Gamrot, followed by an arm triangle finish.
Result: Gamrot via Submission (Round 2)
Pick: Brown
Round 1:
Holland brutally attacked Brown’s lead leg—noticeable swelling developed. Brown may have been dropped by a left hook. Holland controlled on top, but Brown landed 12-6 elbows, upkicks, and threatened submissions.
Score: 10-9 Holland
Round 2:
Competitive striking, but Holland locked in a D’Arce attempt. Brown escaped but looked completely exhausted by the end.
Score: 10-9 Holland
Round 3:
Brown was extremely fatigued, mostly clinching and holding against the cage. Holland did just enough with strikes to edge it. Some may score this for Brown.
Score: 10-9 Holland
Result: Holland via Decision
Pick: Pico
Round 1:
Pitbull had success countering, especially off Pico’s jab. Pico landed a solid takedown. Close round.
Score: 10-9 Pitbull
Round 2:
Excellent round from Pico—busy jab, clean counters, and combinations. Finished with a strong takedown.
Score: 10-9 Pico
Round 3:
Pico continued to outclass Pitbull on the feet. Pitbull was too hesitant.
Score: 10-9 Pico
Result: Pico via Decision
Pick: Swanson
Round 1:
Swanson dominated completely.
Pick: Reyes
Round 1:
Reyes started sharp, but Walker’s leg kicks took over as the round progressed.
Score: 10-9 Walker
Round 2:
Similar pattern. Reyes applied more pressure. Based on trusted input:
Score: 10-9 Reyes
Round 3:
Difficult to follow closely. Low-quality, uneventful round. Unclear scoring.
Result: Reyes via Split Decision
Pick: Blaydes
Rounds 1–3:
All rounds were chaotic and high-paced. Overall, I think Hokit edged it on volume, though Blaydes stayed competitive.
Score: 29-28 Hokit
Result: Hokit via Decision
Pick: Murzakanov
Round 1:
Costa landed strong inside body kicks and scored an eyepoke pause. Murzakanov had moments, but Costa dropped him (possibly a slip) and controlled on top.
Score: 10-9 Costa
Round 2:
Costa slowed significantly. Murzakanov took over with pressure and damage. Brief grappling exchange with a scarf hold attempt.
Score: 10-9 Murzakanov (close)
Round 3:
Costa landed a massive head kick. Murzakanov barely survived.
Round 1:
Ulberg’s leg kicks were effective early. Jiri had explosive moments, but Ulberg avoided danger well. Ulberg appeared to injure his knee at one point. Jiri invited a pocket exchange, made questionable decisions, and was caught with a left hook. Knocked out and finished on the ground.
Result: Ulberg via KO
Note: Extremely poor fight IQ moment from Jiri.
Personally, I do have to ground myself and look at the harsh reality of most MMA retirements… which is that there are generally no MMA retirements. The sport retires the fighter before the fighter retires the sport. And fairy tale endings are almost non-existent. Even the good ones come with asterisks.
Cub has been rocked in a lot of his recent fights. He isn’t moving as quickly or sharply as he used to. But will it hurt my heart any less knowing a possible knockout loss is completely reasonable tomorrow night? Unfortunately, no. It will hurt my poor little heart. And these feelings, I’m quite aware, are 100% selfish because it’s the end of an era for me, as the sport I fell in love with is slowly aging out. All the phenomenal, entertaining fighters from days of yore have mostly left the MMA space at this point.
Cub is my all-time favorite fighter. If he’s getting old, I’m getting old.
That being said, Cub at 42 years old looks really good given his last performances and the division he is in. It’s really an underrated feat, as Cub has been quietly performing at a high level. Even if it’s been win, lose, win, lose… he’s still getting wins—and KNOCKOUT wins at that. It’s impressive. Fighters should be studying his career—the pros and cons, his longevity, and his craft.
Cub didn’t always do it right and missed out on some very big opportunities. He was in a prime position to fight Conor McGregor and never got a fight with Urijah Faber. He was never able to win that one fight that would’ve earned him a title shot. But god damn it, Cub stayed true to himself, never sold out, faced the elite of the division, and even beat some of them—and it was ALWAYS entertaining.
I’ve never missed a single Cub Swanson fight in the UFC. I missed his early WEC fights, but caught on later.
Cub Swanson via Round 1 KO/TKO is what I have selected on Verdict, but being completely transparent, I may switch that to Round 2 because Nate Landwehr is one tough mother fucker. In all likelihood, it’ll go to a decision.
This should be a war.
| Fighter | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Ulberg | Decision |
| Murzakanov | Round 1 Submission |
| Blaydes | Decision |
| Reyes | Round 2 KO/TKO |
| Swanson | Round 1 KO/TKO |
| Pico | Round 2 KO/TKO |
| Randy Brown | Round 3 Submission |
| Ribovics | Round 1 KO/TKO |
| Suarez | Decision |
| Padilla | Decision |
| Gastelum | Round 1 KO/TKO |
Wow... if my picks are any indication of what might go down tomorrow, this card is gonna be insane. I also haven't checked the odds to see if I picked more favs or underdogs. 😂
Enjoy the fights!
]]>Steve Asplund is the most interesting heavyweight in MMA right now aside from Gable Steveson, and I’d argue Steve is just more interesting as a person. Fat guy loses weight and starts fighting. He body-shames himself, but in a fun way. In addition to having an interesting story and charisma, he is a fun action fighter, which is seriously lacking in this division. Tom Aspinall is probably the next best action fighter.
So although heavyweight is still in shambles, there is some movement in a positive direction, but it still is on a very shaky foundation. Asplund has skills and I think he can go much farther if he tightens a few things up. Very solid chin, decent movement, cardio, and surprisingly good takedown defense. Good enough to thwart Gable Steveson? Probably not in a direct shot, but he may be able to keep him away with his hands.
But… I still think the UFC as a whole is trending downward with its card strength and matchmaking. I saw someone on X say, “Where is everyone complaining all week that UFC fights are dead?” And this is a stupid argument. I’d equate the state of the UFC to global warming. Temperatures on average are getting warmer year over year. Just because one year or even one day is cooler than the rest is not indicative of the larger trend. And just because this one card was solid doesn’t mean the UFC on average isn’t putting on shittier cards. They are. One card doesn’t excuse shit. And it was a Fight Night… not even a numbered event. So what does that tell you? There weren’t even major names on this card.
There are constantly dumb takes, but I figured highlighting that one was worth it…
Anyways, on to the next.
]]>Dana White can add another one to his failed superfights list. That makes two involving Ronda as well. She should have fought both Cyborg and Carano. Now he has neither under his belt.
I’m also not sure Dana White was ever truly interested in a fight like this at this stage. It would certainly make sense for a White House card. Gina Carano would likely appeal to Donald, and she would fit right into that manosphere crowd, given her alignment with right-wing MAGA politics.
This fight is happening far too late in their careers, and I’d be surprised if Carano makes weight. She has historically struggled to make weight, and the weigh-ins have often become the real spectacle. Carano is obviously attractive, so this could end up being one of the most watched weigh-ins and fights of 2026. That’s just my opinion, though. The UFC isn’t putting on anything particularly compelling right now.
Personal interest rating: 1.5/5
I’m more curious about the potential trainwreck aspect. I expect Rousey to win, but honestly, I’m not sure what to anticipate. I’m more interested in what other MMA fights might be announced.
Since this seems to be nostalgia-driven matchmaking, I wouldn’t be surprised to see:
It’s a curious time in MMA.
]]>It could also be called “The Advertisement Era.”
I paid around $100 for the premium annual subscription to Paramount+. My girlfriend asked me, “Are there going to be ads?” I laughed.
Not because I read the fine print—because I didn’t. I went with the higher tier because I don’t want to miss anything UFC-related that might end up behind a paywall. But I laughed because I was pretty sure they’d run advertisements during the live broadcast no matter what tier I paid for.
And guess what?
A D V E R T I S E M E N T S E V E R Y W H E R E
Ever since the Fertittas sold the UFC, there has been a growing focus on monetizing everything UFC. Of course there are in-octagon ads, commentary does ad reads, Buffer does ad reads, and there are normal ads between fights. But as time goes on, more and more things are sponsored: getting your name on the canvas, the UFC “prep point” being sponsored, sponsorship stickers on the commentators’ headphones, and advertisements replacing walkouts. There are ads between rounds, too.
Now they have it where, even if they do show the fighters in their corners, an L-frame ad pops up, and you can’t hear the corner audio anyway. During this event, Ghostface from Scream was shown walking around behind fighters (Waldo Acosta, specifically), and it led straight into a Scream trailer. It’s a massive amount of advertising, and I don’t see that changing.
To me, this was expected—maybe not for most of the main card like they did, but still. The amount of money Paramount paid for this partnership was astronomical, so they’re going to monetize everything. Dana White was asked about it, and he said he’ll look into it and that he thinks things will change. But that’s not really up to Dana White.
What I do think Paramount will try is integrating ads less intrusively. Instead of cutting away and not showing anything, they’ll run ads side-by-side with the content we actually want to see. The bigger question is: which audio wins? The walkout and corner audio, or the ad?
My guess is the advertising.
That’s why I’m calling it the Advertisement Era. We’re going to watch how advertising is approached, evolves, and gets implemented into a live sporting event—right up to the point where it’s supposed to “not feel intrusive.” It’s going to feel like The Truman Show.
As I’m writing this, I’m seeing that ads were trending on Twitter, too. The headline reads: “FANS SLAM ADS DURING UFC 324 DEBUT ON PARAMOUNT+.”
Listen—MMA fans (really UFC and betting fans) are ultra shitty in general. They are 87% fairweather fans, and I would truly believe that statistic even though I have zero data. But their complaints about ads are justified, and I only saw a couple of bootlickers saying they didn’t mind.
Okay—so, tons of advertising. The next takeaway I had was: “BLINK-182.”
Travis Barker’s involvement with MMA goes back to his fandom, but also to a business opportunity for his clothing company, Famous Stars and Straps. He sponsored fighters back in the day. Anyway, his and Blink-182’s presence was featured heavily: their music, Travis interviews, Travis playing drums in the octagon (not live—on video), and him in the crowd with Kourtney. It was a lot. Too much. Shit, I think Travis even mentioned UFC is anti-establishment. Sure, Travis… maybe up until 2001 when the Fertittas purchased it. It’s popular now because they went establishment friendly.
There was also a lot of filler at the beginning of the broadcast because quite a few fights fell out. I’m sure they were prepping for a much longer run time that would’ve been filled with fighting, not talking. Michael Johnson vs. Alexander Hernandez, Cam Smotherman, Harrison vs. Nunes—gone. This was less of an issue for me, but it did piss off a lot of fairweather fans. Then again, they’ll complain about literally everything, including a good fight.
Dominick Cruz was inducted into the Hall of Fame, which is absolutely deserved. He was one of my favorite fighters when he was active… well, as active as he could be given the injuries. His style is still something I like to study.
When the main card started, they did a really good promo package to kick off the new era.
Anyway, let’s get to my picks and the fights.
| Fighter | Result | Fight rating |
|---|---|---|
| Gaethje | ✅ | 9/10 |
| O’Malley | ✅ | 7/10 |
| Black Beast | ❌ | 5/10 |
| Rose Namajunas | ❌ | 2/10 |
| Arnold Allen | ❌ | 7/10 |
| Umar | ✅ | 2/10 |
| Ateba Gautier | ✅ | 5/10 |
| Nikita Krylov | ✅ | 6/10 |
| Charles Johnson | ❌ | 5/10 |
| Josh Hokit | ✅ | 5/10 |
| Ty Miller | ✅ | 6/10 |
7 right, 4 wrong. My K/D ratio is 1.75.
At the very last second, I changed my pick from Natalia Silva to Rose Namajunas—and that happens to be the fight I disagreed with the scorecards on. I think Rose won the first two rounds, and Natalia obviously took the third. I can also see an argument for Andrey Pulyaev defeating Ateba Gautier, but I’d need to rewatch it. My dog was going insane, and I missed chunks of the fight.
I enjoyed Ty Miller’s clean, straight punches. He had some difficulty against the southpaw stance of Adam Fugitt, but he did well. Fugitt performed well given my expectations, and I thought he had excellent body kicks.
Josh Hokit is a better fighter—and a much better athlete—than Denzel Freeman. Freeman had nothing: covering up, barely countering, and offering almost no resistance. Hokit’s power wasn’t impressive in this fight, but as he gets more comfortable standing, he’ll start seeing openings sooner. Right now, it’s mostly pressure and volume. Eventually, he’ll need more composure, or he’ll get sniped.
I still despise the guy’s absolutely stupid WWE gimmick, which is basically him impersonating wrestlers and Chael Sonnen verbatim. The only “original” thing he does is say one controversial thing here and there. It’s stupid, and if the guy wasn’t an athlete, he’d be the first to sign up for ICE.
Moving on to Arnold Allen: I really thought Arnold would win. He had crisp striking and good movement, but eventually Jean’s power messed him up, and Arnold also gassed out. Jean moves on, and I don’t. He’s a bit of a donk—insane, maybe acoustic, emotional—but he’s fun to watch. If you were doing absurd, stereotypical comedy about a Brazilian MMA fighter, you’d come up with Jean Silva.
Derrick Lewis and Waldo were a letdown. Waldo mostly waited and capitalized on Derrick making mistakes. Derrick didn’t want to make too many mistakes, but he did. Waldo is good, not great. He moves okay. He’s a new name in the heavyweight division and will continue to be in interesting matchups. I need to rewatch more of his fights because I haven’t come to a conclusion on how I feel about him.
Sean O’Malley won a decision. Some are saying Song Yadong was robbed. I disagree. I could see it being a controversial decision in the sense that it could go either way, but I felt Sean won. It comes down to the first round. Sean landed the cleaner strikes at a higher volume in Round 1, and the stats back that up.
I’m not big on looking at stats to make a decision, but in this instance it makes sense. You look at the first round and see O’Malley landing at a higher clip, and you see the damage on Song’s face. What sways people is Song’s explosiveness and power, but one or two big moments can’t eclipse who did the real, cumulative damage. Sean wasn’t super hurt by the end of the round, and neither was Song—but Song had visible damage. The numbers don’t lie on this one.
Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett. This was a tough one to pick for me personally for a few reasons:
Ultimately, I went with Gaethje because I thought he’d have better cardio over five rounds, he’s the better fighter, and I didn’t think he’d get taken down. There’s also the pressure of the moment, the aura, and the question of whether Gaethje is just going to look old.
The only way I can describe this fight is: these two beat the shit out of each other. People want to complain about the eyepoke Gaethje did and the nut shots. Even if those didn’t happen, Paddy was going to get messed up.
They both left something in the cage—especially Paddy. Gaethje did well to try to exhaust Paddy as much as he could. In those early rounds, Gaethje didn’t do much in terms of volume. He let Paddy throw bombs. But kudos to Paddy: he didn’t slow down as much as I thought he would, and the dude can really take a punch.
I don’t know how his chin will fare after this fight long-term, but let me just tell you: he has a chin. He took 25 minutes worth of absolute bombs.
Although it was entertaining, I don’t see either of them beating Arman or Ilia. It was a fun main event in terms of action, but it misses the mark of the true best-in-the-world competing and what was really at stake. It was an interim title.
That’s why I scored it a 9/10, but it might be more fair to put it at an 8/10. We need better storylines, stakes, and skill levels for the 9 and 10 marks.
Nonetheless, about 40% of the card was a good time.
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