On Saturday, July 11, I watched Conor McGregor return after a five-year layoff, move up in weight, and face a younger former champion. The first kick Conor threw, he blew out his knee.
Speaking of knees, Kamaru Usman fights this weekend, July 18, 2026, in Oklahoma City—for some reason—and will also be taking on a younger former champion at a higher weight class.
Obviously, I’m drawing some parallels between Conor’s return and Usman’s, but there are some key differences. Despite Usman’s bad knees, he isn’t coming off a devastating injury to his tibia and fibula. He also fought last year. But he is 39 years old and is moving up once again to fight at middleweight.
Before his last fight, Usman took on Khamzat Chimaev on 10 days’ notice, replacing Paulo Costa. It was also his middleweight debut.
It was a strange fight. Kamaru clearly lost the first round, with all three judges scoring it 10-8. In the second, Chimaev barely tried for takedowns for most of the round and instead chose to have a light sparring match with Usman. He scored a takedown late and got some control time, but that still should have been an Usman round. Some judges didn’t see it that way.
The third was mostly the same story, except Chimaev attempted—and failed—on more takedowns. He did secure one and got more control time, but I still thought it was another clear round for Usman. Again, some judges didn’t see it that way.
What probably should have been a draw ended up being a majority decision for Chimaev in a strange three-round affair.
Personally, there isn’t much to take away from that fight other than Usman becoming another victim of Chimaev’s first-round domination. After watching Strickland’s recent fight with the Chechen, all I can say is that Chimaev is a fucking headcase.
After a two-year layoff, Usman returned against Joaquin Buckley, who I thought was a good comeback opponent. He also shares some similarities with DDP, although the comparisons are few and far between. Still, he is a better matchup than some of the other opponents he could have faced.
Despite Usman being around a +205 underdog and Buckley coming in at -263, I felt pretty comfortable taking Usman. The reason was simple: Buckley doesn’t seem to have any rhyme or reason to how he fights. He just throws bungalows across the Octagon until he hopefully lands something.
I figured that if Usman minded his p’s and q’s, he’d be able to beat him. Aside from things getting a little hairy in the final round, Usman didn’t have much trouble with Buckley at all.
I scored every round for Kamaru, as did a lot of media outlets. The judges gave Buckley the final round, which… fine. I’m cool with that.
Fast-forward a little over a year, and now Usman is facing another athletic bruiser—one who is arguably even more awkward. I also like to call DDP a Street Shark on rollerblades.
As mentioned earlier, Usman is now 39 years old, while DDP is 32. DDP is officially listed as only an inch taller, but I have a feeling he’s going to look noticeably bigger once they’re standing across from each other. He just seems to have a larger frame than Usman, although we probably won’t know for sure until the faceoff.
| Category | Kamaru Usman | Dricus du Plessis |
|---|---|---|
| Nickname | The Nigerian Nightmare | Stillknocks |
| Record | 21–4 | 23–3 |
| Age | 39 | 32 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'1" |
| Reach | 76" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Nationality | Nigeria / USA | South Africa |
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Statistic | Kamaru Usman | Dricus du Plessis |
|---|---|---|
| Significant strikes landed per minute | 4.16 | 5.18 |
| Significant-strike accuracy | 51% | 48% |
| Significant strikes absorbed per minute | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| Significant-strike defense | 55% | 52% |
| Average takedowns per 15 minutes | 2.79 | 2.22 |
| Takedown accuracy | 44% | 51% |
| Takedown defense | 89% | 34% |
| Average submissions per 15 minutes | 0.1 | 0.7 |
There’s no question that Usman is the superior wrestler. But assuming he’s going to have the same success against DDP that Chimaev did would be incredibly naive. As noted earlier, Usman was also dominated in the first round of that fight.
I felt confident picking Usman over Buckley. I don’t feel the same about his chances against DDP. Outside of both men being awkward and athletic, I think the Buckley comparison ends there.
DDP is relentless and can somehow sustain a high-volume pressure style over five rounds. I think Usman is going to have trouble in the striking exchanges. Even when he has success, DDP is uniquely good at taking one shot and answering with three or four strikes of his own. They look goofy and high-impact, even when half of them might not land. Optics.
I expect Usman to have some early success with his grappling and land a few good shots here and there. But as the rounds progress, the pace and sheer ridiculousness of DDP’s style will start wearing on him.
Spend too much time rewatching DDP’s fights and you can convince yourself otherwise, but we have to keep this practical. This is a fight DDP should win.
Kamaru Usman beating DDP would be very impressive, but it might also say more about how shit the UFC’s middleweight division is. In Usman’s prime, this could have been a much more likely outcome.
Give me DDP by third-round stoppage.
