Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje

The main event features Ilia Topuria against Justin Gaethje in what is being promoted as a lightweight title unification bout.

The title situation does not make much sense. If the UFC is going to distribute championships as freely as it often does, Topuria should probably also possess the BMF title, while Gaethje should be attempting to unify the lightweight championship and regain the BMF belt at the same time.

Topuria enters as a substantial favorite, which is understandable. He has looked exceptional and is the considerably younger fighter. Topuria is 29 years old, while Gaethje is 37.

Gaethje is taller at 5 feet 11 inches compared with Topuria at 5 feet 7 inches, but his reach advantage is only one inch.

My pick is Topuria.

One of the most important technical elements will be how Topuria handles Gaethje's single-collar tie. Gaethje uses it constantly to break his opponent's posture before throwing heavy punches at close range.

Leg kicks will also be significant. Gaethje often throws them from unusually close distances, which could be interesting against Topuria's more conventional boxing stance.

Topuria is generally effective at shifting his weight between his lead and rear legs, but Gaethje's timing and willingness to exchange could still create problems.

Gaethje is extremely comfortable in chaotic close-range exchanges. He has even thrown wild head kicks from the clinch. That particular technique may not determine this fight, but it illustrates how unpredictable he can be when the distance collapses.

Topuria does a good job slipping punches and protecting himself behind his shoulder. However, he can be hit on his right side, particularly by hooks and kicks that travel around his shoulder rather than directly through his guard.

It does not happen constantly, but it happens often enough to be worth watching.

Conditioning may also become a major factor. This fight could be contested at a high pace and become ugly very quickly.

The outdoor setting adds another variable. The canvas could become slippery, particularly with the enormous number of sponsor logos usually printed across it.

By the time the main event begins, the surface may also be covered with sweat, blood, and water from the previous fights. It will be interesting to see whether the UFC replaces or cleans the canvas before the main event.

There has also been discussion about the pressure associated with competing on this card. Gaethje may feel a particular obligation to perform for the American crowd and the dignitaries in attendance, especially with a championship at stake.

Gaethje has historically thrived under pressure, though, and he appears to enjoy being the underdog. That psychological element may work in his favor.

Topuria has reportedly predicted a first-round knockout. I believe he wins, but I expect the finish to come in the second or third round. I am accounting for the outdoor conditions and the possibility of a more cautious opening than expected.

This is an excellent main event, even though I still believe Arman Tsarukyan should be occupying this position.

Prediction: Ilia Topuria by knockout in Round 2 or Round 3.

Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane

In the co-main event, Alex "Poatan" Pereira moves to heavyweight to face Ciryl Gane for the interim heavyweight championship.

The betting odds are close, and it will be worth monitoring how the line moves as the fight approaches.

Gane is two years younger and holds a slight reach advantage, measuring 81 inches compared with Pereira's 79. Gane is also the natural heavyweight, although the two fighters have relatively similar professional records.

Gane's game is built around mobility. He uses extensive lateral movement, attacks the body with kicks, and generally manages distance well.

However, he sometimes retreats in straight lines and frequently carries his hands low.

Pereira will likely attempt to take away Gane's space, cut off the cage, and force him behind the outer boundary line. From there, Pereira can attack as Gane circles away or catch him during exchanges when the pressure begins to build.

Pereira is fully capable of scoring a knockout, but I am leaning toward Gane.

Gane is the more dynamic overall fighter, and that versatility matters at heavyweight. I believe it will take more than one clean punch to remove him from the fight.

Over five rounds, Gane may gradually establish his rhythm and accumulate momentum.

I am also interested in whether Gane attempts any takedowns. The clinch exchanges and positions against the cage could be pivotal.

Whichever fighter lands the cleaner shots as they separate may gain a major advantage.

A decision victory for Gane is entirely possible, but in the spirit of America and freedom, let us hope the fight ends inside the distance.

I expect Gane to accumulate damage and eventually land something devastating from range in the third round. Still, this is heavyweight MMA, so no result should be considered surprising.

This may be the fight I am anticipating most, partly because Pereira's walkout is one of the best in combat sports. Hearing Sepultura played at the White House would be undeniably cold.

Prediction: Ciryl Gane by knockout or technical knockout in Round 3.

Sean O'Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi

Sean O'Malley enters his fight against Aiemann Zahabi as a substantial favorite.

The size of the betting line initially seems surprising because Zahabi is a durable and intelligent fighter. It is not impossible to imagine him turning the contest into an ugly, competitive fight and winning a decision.

There is also the completely scientific concern that O'Malley could slip on the outdoor canvas and injure one of his famously delicate ankles.

The odds become more understandable after examining the matchup. O'Malley has the greater name recognition and ranking, and he is younger, taller, and longer.

Statistically, Zahabi tends to absorb roughly one strike for every strike he lands. O'Malley, by comparison, is much better at landing without remaining in position for the immediate return.

Zahabi and his brother, Firas, are capable of constructing an effective game plan, so I would not completely dismiss his chances. He may be able to disrupt O'Malley's rhythm and make the fight uncomfortable.

Ultimately, however, I expect O'Malley's length, movement, and defensive awareness to carry him to a decision victory.

Prediction: Sean O'Malley by decision.

Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit

Donald Trump's favorite fighter, Derrick Lewis, faces Josh Hokit, who may replace Lewis as Trump's favorite fighter by the end of Sunday night.

Lewis is 41 years old, while Hokit is 28. Hokit is reportedly only a few inches shorter, but he gives up approximately five inches in reach.

Despite that disadvantage, Hokit enters as the favorite.

There is always a reasonable argument for betting on Lewis by knockout. He is one of the most powerful fighters in UFC history, owns an enormous number of knockout victories, and competes in a division where one punch can erase everything that happened beforehand.

Hokit also absorbed plenty of punches in his fight with Curtis Blaydes, so Lewis will have opportunities.

However, this matchup reminds me of how easily Daniel Cormier was able to take Lewis down. Hokit does not possess the same credentials as Cormier, but the comparison is relevant enough to illustrate the potential problem.

Lewis may land a few heavy punches or kicks, but I expect Hokit to attack the legs, drag him to the canvas, and control the fight from there.

Once the fight reaches the ground, Hokit should be able to produce damage and find a submission. The only question is whether it comes through an arm triangle or a rear-naked choke.

The rear-naked choke may sound a little too homoerotic for all the new viewers, but an arm triangle looks like an awkward hug, so there is no perfect solution.

I will go with the traditional option.

Prediction: Josh Hokit by rear-naked choke in Round 1.

Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy

Michael Chandler wants to be Donald Trump's favorite fighter, but he is not. He also wants to fight Conor McGregor, but apparently that is not happening either.

Instead, Chandler faces Mauricio Ruffy, who is at least vaguely reminiscent of McGregor.

Ruffy is a major favorite, and it is easy to understand why. Chandler is 40 years old, while Ruffy is 29. Ruffy is also taller and owns a meaningful reach advantage.

As long as Ruffy does not spend three rounds being controlled by Chandler's wrestling—and does not get kicked directly in the face—I have difficulty seeing him lose.

Ruffy has reportedly built a gym and training camp around himself rather than operating as a conventional member of the Fighting Nerds team.

I like that approach. It resembles the individualized camps once constructed around major boxing stars such as Muhammad Ali and George Foreman.

There are faint shades of McGregor against Chad Mendes in this matchup, although the similarities begin to disappear as soon as you examine them closely.

Chandler should have moments early, especially if he commits to his wrestling and refuses to engage recklessly.

History suggests that he will eventually abandon the safest strategy and enter a chaotic exchange.

Unless Chandler has substantially increased his dosage of American-made freedom supplements, I expect Ruffy to finish him.

Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy by technical knockout in Round 2.

Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus

The card also includes another candidate for Donald Trump's favorite fighter: Bo Nickal.

Nickal faces Kyle Daukaus in a matchup between two southpaws. The last time Nickal fought a southpaw, Reinier de Ridder repeatedly found him with strikes and eventually finished him.

That experience is relevant here.

Nickal enters as a moderate favorite. His record stands at 8-1, while Daukaus brings considerably more experience with a 17-4 record and is beginning his second UFC stint.

Daukaus is a few inches taller, although their reach is identical. Nickal is three years younger at 30.

I like Daukaus more than the betting odds suggest.

The most likely outcome is still Nickal controlling the fight through takedowns, mat returns, and superior positioning before winning a decision.

He is the more accomplished athlete and possesses vastly superior wrestling credentials.

Nickal's striking has improved, but he still needs experience. He looked solid against Rodolfo Vieira, although Vieira offered almost nothing offensively in that fight.

He moved with the urgency of a parked car.

Daukaus has the tools to make this contest ugly. He can occupy space, pressure forward, and land combinations. He will probably absorb punches in return, but he may be durable enough to take them.

Nickal's defensive striking and footwork are not yet developed enough to completely neutralize Daukaus. When exchanges become uncomfortable, Nickal will almost certainly search for takedowns.

Daukaus may not possess elite takedown defense, and he will probably lose certain scrambling positions. However, he is a legitimate submission threat.

Pressure could also influence Nickal's decision-making. He will not want to look bad in front of his powerful golfing friend.

That may encourage him to attempt risky techniques that do not serve his best interests, much as he did against de Ridder.

The correct strategy for Nickal is straightforward: wrestle constantly, establish dominant positions, produce damage, and continue wrestling.

This is one of the best and most logical matchups on the card. Picking the underdog may not be the intelligent choice, but I am willing to have some fun.

I believe Daukaus can hurt Nickal on the feet, force a desperate wrestling exchange, and attack his neck during the transition.

Prediction: Kyle Daukaus by submission in Round 2.

Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia

The opening fight of the White House card features Diego Lopes against Steve Garcia.

It is easy to understand why the UFC selected this matchup to begin the event. Conceptually, it should produce immediate fireworks.

Garcia is only a slight underdog. He is three years older, slightly taller, and appears to hold a reach advantage of approximately two and a half inches.

Garcia owns a 19-5 record, while Lopes enters at 27-8.

The southpaw-versus-orthodox dynamic also makes the fight interesting, with Garcia operating from the southpaw stance.

Garcia is unusually built for a featherweight. His limbs look exceptionally long, and his style is awkward in an effective way.

He uses constant movement and feints, maintains an active lead hand, and frequently attacks with front kicks.

I am a fan of his approach. His volume and movement alone could create problems for Lopes.

However, Lopes' losses have generally come against elite competition. His difficulty cutting off the cage is well established, but that weakness may be less important against Garcia, who is more willing to engage.

Garcia manages long range effectively, but he can be caught by counters.

His striking differential is remarkable, averaging 5.39 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing only 2.12.

Those numbers should be viewed in the context of his shorter average fight time and the level of opposition he has faced, but they remain impressive.

Lopes' durability, experience, and power should be major factors. He is also the better grappler on paper, although Garcia's unusual style could make the grappling exchanges less predictable than expected.

I believe the fight reaches the scorecards, with damage serving as the deciding factor in Lopes' favor.

Regardless of the result, this is an excellent matchup and an ideal way to start the event.

Prediction: Diego Lopes by decision.

Final Thoughts

UFC Freedom 250 is unquestionably a historic event.

Whether the political theater enhances or distracts from the fights remains to be seen, but the White House setting guarantees that the show will attract an enormous audience.

It will bring longtime fans, first-time viewers, dignitaries, celebrities, political arguments, bad analysis, and possibly Kid Rock together for one strange night of cage fighting.

Once it is over, everyone can finally stop complaining about it and begin preparing for the next unavoidable spectacle: the return of Conor McGregor.

Yay.