MATLOCK

DWCS Week 4

September 02, 2025

Tommy McMillen (+148) vs. David Mgoyan (-173)

This matchup has me the most excited. Both fighters are considered hot prospects, but I believe Mgoyan stands out. McMillen is talented with significant potential, but he’s often matched against smaller opponents, which isn’t uncommon. He cuts a lot of weight and has had a few weight misses, leaving him largely untested. His wrestling and grappling seem stronger than his stand-up. McMillen tends to lead with his head, making him vulnerable to counters. Opponents who pressure him have landed strikes effectively, but McMillen’s size advantage is significant.

For Mgoyan, the challenge is getting inside McMillen’s reach without exposing himself to counters. His wrestling and grappling appear strong, but can he handle McMillen’s size? I think Mgoyan will surprise McMillen on the feet. He strings together better combinations and mixes his strikes more effectively than McMillen, who relies heavily on kicks, particularly level-change feints and head kicks. McMillen also likes to close distance with knees. If Mgoyan has studied tape, these habits present excellent countering opportunities. I also believe Mgoyan can counter off McMillen’s jab and land combinations.

It’s curious that Mgoyan is closing as the favorite, especially since he’s been susceptible to head kicks in past fights and will be outsized. However, it’s not surprising given Mgoyan’s overall skill edge. My pick on Verdict is David Mgoyan by decision, but I’ve also placed a few bets:

• Fight goes the distance: +120
• Tommy McMillen moneyline: +160
• Fight over 1.5 rounds: -199

Aside from Ho vs. Henrique, this is the fight I’m most excited about.

An Tuan Ho (+130) vs. Eduardo Henrique (-150)

Ho’s last Contender Series appearance ended in an ugly knockout loss, so it’s understandable why Henrique (“Chapolin”) is the slight favorite. This is a tough fight to predict, and I haven’t studied as much tape as I did for McMillen vs. Mgoyan. I’m concerned about Henrique’s attacks, particularly his knees. However, Ho’s explosive grappling initially made me lean toward the underdog. Ho has power but tends to stand at range too long, which could be problematic against someone like Henrique.

As I write this, I’m reconsidering. The Contender Series’ pressure might push Ho to fight recklessly, getting him touched up on the feet. I’m switching my pick to Eduardo Henrique.

Rest of the Card

My picks for the remaining fights:

• Samuel Silva
• Cezary Oleksiejczuk
• JP Lebosnoyani (though I’m not impressed by him. It’s surprising he’s a -550 favorite. His defense isn’t great, and Congdon could land a single heavy punch to finish him. Not a fight I’m interested in betting on.)

It should be an exciting night of fights! Verdict