UFC 313 delivers a matchup many fans have been clamoring for: Alex Pereira facing a “wrestler” in Magomed Ankalaev. With a name that phonetically echoes the relentless Dagestani wrestlers who charge their opponents and dominate them on the mat, Ankalaev might seem like that kind of fighter at first glance. However, that’s not quite the case, and he may not be the overwhelming, mat-mauling wrestler that casual to semi-knowledgeable fans might expect.

Magomed is perfectly content kickboxing at mid-range. He primarily fights from a southpaw stance unless he’s up against another southpaw, in which case he switches to orthodox. His arsenal includes a rear-leg front kick (or teep), a solid jab, a sneaky-fast left straight, and effective inside body kicks. He also loves to test his opponent’s guard with a quick rear-leg head kick. As a pressure fighter, he engages just enough to bait his opponent into blitzing forward—and that’s where Magomed excels. When his opponent takes the bait and throws combinations while advancing, Magomed slides back out of range as the punches miss, then counters with a lead check right hook to the jaw followed by a left. Once those shots land and his opponent tries to reset, he’ll unleash that head kick. Rinse and repeat.

I’ve only really seen Magomed turn to wrestling when he’s out of position, losing a round and needing to secure points, or visibly hurt. And for the most part, he’s successful when he does. That said, he’s not nearly as dominant a wrestler as his Dagestani counterparts. His opponents have escaped his grasp and returned to their feet plenty of times.

On paper, Ankalaev is still one of the better wrestlers Pereira—often called “Poatan”—will have faced, if not the best. While Alex has shown he can work his way back to his feet after being taken down, he’s been grounded multiple times across several fights. This has happened even against smaller fighters like Bruno Silva or those with little reason to wrestle, like Israel Adesanya. Worse still, Alex has a tendency to give up his back when taken down.

What could make this fight particularly tough for Magomed is Poatan’s relentless jabs to both the body and head. Add in teeps and low calf kicks that force opponents to stumble forward into his devastating left hook, and Magomed could be in for a long night. Still, I believe Magomed has enough tools in his basic arsenal to make it a challenging fight for Alex. If he can weather Pereira’s persistent jab and long reach, mix in his own leg kicks, jabs, and check hooks, and incorporate some grappling, he could win rounds and potentially tire Poatan out in the later stages. Pereira does get hit—he uses his reach to thwart incoming punches, but this isn’t Khalil Rountree he’s facing. Alex needs to be extremely cautious about pressing forward with combinations, as Magomed’s counter game is sharp and reliable.

If I had to pick, I’d say it’s either Poatan by knockout in the later rounds or a decision victory for him. That should be plenty for even the casual fan to chew on.